Fri, Nov 29, 2013·Honda Center, Anaheim
Calgary Flames 2, Anaheim Ducks 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 87% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 06 | 210 | 05 | 221 |
| ANA | 214 | 215 | 113 | 542 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:20ANASami VatanenAssists: Andrew Cogliano, Saku Koivu · Slap, 0.04 xG0–1
- P1 13:14ANACorey PerryAssists: Ben Lovejoy, Nolan Yonkman · Slap, 0.13 xG0–2
- P2 3:52ANADustin PennerPPGWGAssists: Ryan Getzlaf, Nick Bonino · Tip-in, 0.12 xG0–3
- P2 5:51CGYDavid JonesAssists: Ladislav Smid, Lance Bouma · Deflected, 0.08 xG1–3
- P2 8:21ANAAndrew CoglianoAssists: Daniel Winnik, Saku Koivu · Backhand, 0.05 xG1–4
- P2 12:17CGYDavid JonesUnassisted · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–4
- P3 11:26ANADustin PennerAssists: Ryan Getzlaf, Corey Perry · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–5
Penalties (4)
- P1 9:40CGYReto Berra: High sticking2 min
- P2 2:51CGYMikael Backlund: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P2 19:09CGYMatt Stajan: Interference2 min
- P3 2:02CGYLance Bouma: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stajan won the faceoff against Koivu
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestCammalleri – Stajan – Hudler5:02
xG 0.25–0.11 (70%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Stempniak – Jones – Colborne2:02
xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 0–0
- Cammalleri – Stajan – Stempniak11:31
xG 0.25–0.14 (64%)attempts 8–4goals 0–1
- Hudler – Colborne – Baertschi9:02
xG 0.17–0.30 (36%)attempts 8–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Russell – Brodie20:51
xG 0.34–0.73 (32%)attempts 13–17goals 0–0
- Smid – Butler17:29
xG 0.61–1.17 (34%)attempts 15–26goals 1–2
- Smith – Breen11:44
xG 0.40–1.04 (28%)attempts 13–14goals 1–2
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestSelanne – Beleskey – Perreault13:40
xG 1.14–0.47 (71%)attempts 23–13goals 0–0
- Koivu – Winnik – Cogliano12:14
xG 0.67–0.33 (67%)attempts 13–8goals 2–1
- Getzlaf – Perry – Penner13:57
xG 0.55–0.28 (67%)attempts 10–10goals 1–0
- Jackman – Bonino – Palmieri8:48
xG 0.36–0.34 (51%)attempts 10–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestFistric – Vatanen14:17
xG 0.98–0.21 (82%)attempts 18–9goals 2–0
- Yonkman – Lindholm14:00
xG 0.82–0.58 (59%)attempts 15–17goals 0–2
- Lovejoy – Fowler17:33
xG 0.74–0.57 (56%)attempts 16–16goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 87% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).