Fri, Nov 29, 2013·Verizon Center, Washington
Montréal Canadiens 2, Washington Capitals 3 (SO)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 113 | 19 | 010 | 05 | 2 | 237 |
| WSH | 04 | 113 | 18 | 01 | 3 | 326 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 15:20MTLDaniel BrièreAssists: Tomas Plekanec, Brian Gionta · Wrap-around, 0.07 xG1–0
- P2 5:17WSHEric FehrAssists: Mikhail Grabovski · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–1
- P2 6:24MTLTomas PlekanecAssists: Brian Gionta, Alexei Emelin · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–1
- P3 14:28WSHMikhail GrabovskiAssists: Eric Fehr, Troy Brouwer · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. WSH Eric Fehr scored
- 2. MTL Lars Eller scored
- 3. WSH Alex Ovechkin scored
- 4. MTL David Desharnais scored
- 5. WSH Nicklas Backstrom stopped
- 6. MTL Alex Galchenyuk stopped
- 7. WSH Mikhail Grabovski scored
- 8. MTL Tomas Plekanec stopped
Penalties (8)
- P1 9:41MTLBrian Gionta: High sticking2 min
- P1 11:28MTLRyan White: Tripping2 min
- P2 1:43MTLP.K. Subban: High sticking2 min
- P2 1:43WSHNicklas Backstrom: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 1:43MTLAndrei Markov: Roughing2 min
- P2 8:45WSHNicklas Backstrom: Interference2 min
- P3 2:42MTLBrendan Gallagher: High sticking2 min
- P3 8:48WSHTroy Brouwer: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Beagle won the faceoff against Plekanec
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestDesharnais – Pacioretty – Gallagher12:12
xG 0.75–0.14 (84%)attempts 14–6goals 0–0
- Moen – White – Bournival5:21
xG 0.22–0.24 (48%)attempts 4–3goals 0–1
- Gionta – Moen – Plekanec2:57
xG 0.04–0.13 (22%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Prust – Eller – Galchenyuk11:26
xG 0.38–0.52 (42%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBouillon – Diaz8:13
xG 0.93–0.25 (79%)attempts 16–6goals 0–0
- Markov – Subban15:57
xG 0.45–0.45 (50%)attempts 12–10goals 1–0
- Bouillon – Emelin2:04
xG 0.04–0.17 (19%)attempts 1–2goals 0–1
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestOvechkin – Backstrom – Johansson8:08
xG 0.88–0.14 (86%)attempts 11–4goals 0–0
- Ward – Beagle – Johansson4:57
xG 0.15–0.03 (82%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Chimera – Ovechkin – Backstrom5:34
xG 0.13–0.08 (62%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Fehr – Grabovski – Brouwer14:11
xG 0.86–0.89 (49%)attempts 16–13goals 2–1
Defence pairs
- bestGreen – Alzner12:59
xG 0.58–0.19 (75%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
- Green – Schmidt4:46
xG 0.18–0.05 (78%)attempts 4–4goals 1–0
- Green – Carlson2:48
xG 0.20–0.10 (66%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).