Sat, Nov 30, 2013·Prudential Center, Newark
Buffalo Sabres 0, New Jersey Devils 1 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 03 | 07 | 03 | 02 | 015 |
| NJD | 09 | 06 | 08 | 11 | 124 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- OT 4:19NJDSteve BernierGWGAssists: Andy Greene, Adam Henrique · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–1
Penalties (9)
- P1 2:05NJDRyan Carter: Fighting5 min
- P1 2:05BUFMarcus Foligno: Fighting5 min
- P1 19:45BUFChristian Ehrhoff: Interference2 min
- P2 4:05NJDAndrei Loktionov: Closing hand on puck2 min
- P2 11:08NJDMarek Zidlicky: Tripping2 min
- P2 13:32NJDMark Fayne: Tripping2 min
- P3 4:57BUFBrian Flynn: Hooking2 min
- OT 4:19BUFSteve Ott: Roughing2 min
- OT 4:19NJDAdam Henrique: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zajac won the faceoff against Hodgson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestMoulson – Stafford – Hodgson10:45
xG 0.42–0.13 (76%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Scott – Foligno – Flynn4:03
xG 0.00–0.03 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
- Ennis – Adam – Girgensons9:36
xG 0.02–0.19 (12%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Ott – D'Agostini – Leino12:34
xG 0.19–0.48 (28%)attempts 5–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestTallinder – Myers15:01
xG 0.43–0.23 (65%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Ehrhoff – Sulzer16:41
xG 0.24–0.59 (29%)attempts 5–19goals 0–0
- Weber – Pysyk12:19
xG 0.06–0.58 (10%)attempts 4–11goals 0–0
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestElias – Bernier – Henrique7:17
xG 0.37–0.02 (95%)attempts 9–1goals 0–0
- Jagr – Zubrus – Zajac14:51
xG 0.30–0.06 (83%)attempts 10–2goals 0–0
- Elias – Ryder – Henrique2:42
xG 0.30–0.12 (71%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Bernier – Loktionov – Josefson3:20
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGelinas – Merrill13:45
xG 0.66–0.18 (79%)attempts 12–3goals 0–0
- Fayne – Greene12:31
xG 0.30–0.17 (64%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
- Fayne – Gelinas2:18
xG 0.04–0.07 (33%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).