Sat, Nov 30, 2013·Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum, Uniondale
Washington Capitals 3, New York Islanders 2 (OT)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 09 | 110 | 19 | 12 | 330 |
| NYI | 015 | 012 | 211 | 01 | 239 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 8:58WSHAaron VolpattiAssists: Tom Wilson, Martin Erat · Wrist, 0.29 xG1–0
- P3 3:59NYICal ClutterbuckSHAssists: Andrew MacDonald, Casey Cizikas · Wrist, 0.21 xG1–1
- P3 18:09NYIThomas VanekAssists: John Tavares, Kyle Okposo · Wrist, 0.36 xG1–2
- P3 19:11WSHNicklas BackstromSHAssists: Jason Chimera, Karl Alzner · Wrist, 0.25 xG2–2
- OT 2:07WSHAlex OvechkinGWGAssists: Mikhail Grabovski, Nate Schmidt · Snap, 0.23 xG3–2
Penalties (3)
- P2 11:13WSHJay Beagle: Hooking2 min
- P3 2:10NYIPierre-Marc Bouchard: Interference2 min
- P3 18:50WSHMike Green: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Nielsen won the faceoff against Grabovski
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestErat – Volpatti – Wilson7:17
xG 0.82–0.11 (88%)attempts 4–10goals 1–0
- Ovechkin – Backstrom – Johansson14:39
xG 1.00–1.18 (46%)attempts 18–13goals 0–1
- Fehr – Grabovski – Brouwer12:07
xG 0.38–0.61 (39%)attempts 11–10goals 0–0
- Chimera – Ward – Beagle10:02
xG 0.29–0.58 (34%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGreen – Alzner18:53
xG 1.18–0.42 (74%)attempts 20–11goals 0–0
- Green – Schmidt2:23
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Carlson – Schmidt17:49
xG 1.28–1.49 (46%)attempts 17–25goals 1–1
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestVanek – Okposo – Tavares15:04
xG 1.51–0.97 (61%)attempts 20–17goals 1–0
- McDonald – Martin – Cizikas8:08
xG 0.38–0.30 (55%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Nielsen – Grabner – Bailey11:20
xG 0.18–0.30 (37%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Bouchard – Regin – Clutterbuck10:39
xG 0.46–1.07 (30%)attempts 8–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHickey – de Haan15:43
xG 0.56–0.20 (74%)attempts 17–6goals 0–0
- Hickey – Ness3:32
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Ness – Hamonic2:23
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).