Sat, Nov 30, 2013·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Philadelphia Flyers 3, Nashville Predators 2 (SO)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 111 | 08 | 14 | 01 | 1 | 324 |
| NSH | 113 | 011 | 19 | 03 | 0 | 236 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 16:49PHIClaude GirouxUnassisted · Slap, 0.07 xG1–0
- P1 17:49NSHMike FisherAssists: Patric Hornqvist · Snap, 0.03 xG1–1
- P3 5:05NSHColin WilsonAssists: Gabriel Bourque, Ryan Ellis · Backhand, 0.07 xG1–2
- P3 13:06PHISean CouturierAssists: Andrej Meszaros, Steve Downie · Snap, 0.11 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. NSH Craig Smith stopped
- 2. PHI Vincent Lecavalier scored
- 3. NSH Matt Hendricks stopped
- 4. PHI Claude Giroux stopped
- 5. NSH Matt Cullen stopped
Penalties (8)
- P1 7:25PHIBrayden Schenn: Hooking2 min
- P1 12:32NSHMatt Hendricks: Cross checking2 min
- P1 14:34PHIJakub Voracek: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 6:23PHIBraydon Coburn: Roughing2 min
- P2 9:32PHIMark Streit: Hooking2 min
- P2 18:15PHIBraydon Coburn: Holding2 min
- P3 1:46NSHDavid Legwand: Interference2 min
- P3 15:35NSHPaul Gaustad: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Fisher won the faceoff against Giroux
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- Downie – Read – Couturier8:45
xG 0.48–0.52 (48%)attempts 6–11goals 1–0
- Lecavalier – Simmonds – Schenn9:41
xG 0.16–0.19 (45%)attempts 6–12goals 0–0
- Hall – Rinaldo – Raffl2:55
xG 0.00–0.09 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
- Hartnell – Giroux – Voracek12:45
xG 0.22–0.53 (30%)attempts 8–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestStreit – Grossmann13:03
xG 0.55–0.27 (67%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
- Meszaros – Schenn11:02
xG 0.18–0.28 (39%)attempts 5–13goals 1–0
- Timonen – Coburn13:49
xG 0.25–0.62 (29%)attempts 8–14goals 1–1
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestFisher – Hornqvist – Wilson12:17
xG 0.42–0.07 (85%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Hendricks – Gaustad – Nystrom5:51
xG 0.19–0.05 (79%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Cullen – Spaling – Smith7:56
xG 0.29–0.21 (58%)attempts 8–5goals 0–1
- Legwand – Stalberg – Bourque7:03
xG 0.06–0.43 (12%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJosi – Jones19:13
xG 0.69–0.15 (82%)attempts 18–8goals 0–0
- Bartley – Ekholm3:27
xG 0.39–0.13 (75%)attempts 5–2goals 0–1
- Bartley – Ellis10:20
xG 0.30–0.36 (45%)attempts 14–8goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).