Sat, Nov 30, 2013·STAPLES Center, Los Angeles
Calgary Flames 2, Los Angeles Kings 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 05 | 110 | 15 | 220 |
| LAK | 07 | 09 | 16 | 122 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 15:50CGYBlair JonesSHAssists: Paul Byron, TJ Brodie · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–0
- P3 15:27LAKJustin WilliamsAssists: Jake Muzzin, Anze Kopitar · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–1
- P3 19:37CGYMichael CammalleriGWGAssists: Mikael Backlund, Lee Stempniak · Backhand, 0.12 xG2–1
Penalties (13)
- P1 11:54LAKSlava Voynov: Roughing2 min
- P2 1:37LAKJarret Stoll: Boarding2 min
- P2 2:18LAKDustin Brown: Hooking2 min
- P2 4:14CGYMikael Backlund: Hooking2 min
- P2 8:13LAKDustin Brown: Roughing2 min
- P2 8:13CGYMatt Stajan: Roughing2 min
- P2 8:13LAKDustin Brown: Interference2 min
- P2 14:26CGYLadislav Smid: Boarding5 min
- P2 14:26CGYLadislav Smid: Game misconduct10 min
- P2 19:26CGYShane O'Brien: Elbowing2 min
- P3 3:10LAKDaniel Carcillo: Roughing2 min
- P3 16:25CGYDavid Jones: Holding2 min
- P3 16:25LAKKyle Clifford: Diving2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stajan won the faceoff against Richards
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- McGrattan – Byron – Reinhart2:16
xG 0.03–0.11 (23%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
- Hudler – Jones – Backlund11:14
xG 0.11–0.27 (29%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
- Cammalleri – Stajan – Stempniak11:38
xG 0.33–0.50 (40%)attempts 9–10goals 0–1
- Jones – Colborne – Bouma7:59
xG 0.05–0.26 (17%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- O'Brien – Smith4:39
xG 0.03–0.01 (70%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Butler – Brodie2:29
xG 0.02–0.01 (65%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- O'Brien – Butler5:03
xG 0.14–0.20 (41%)attempts 2–6goals 1–1
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestWilliams – Brown – Kopitar5:30
xG 0.43–0.00 (100%)attempts 9–0goals 1–0
- Clifford – Vey – Toffoli3:49
xG 0.15–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Williams – Kopitar – Clifford3:19
xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Williams – Carcillo – Kopitar2:08
xG 0.08–0.02 (81%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMitchell – Martinez10:37
xG 0.60–0.10 (85%)attempts 13–8goals 0–0
- Muzzin – Doughty12:12
xG 0.47–0.10 (83%)attempts 11–5goals 1–0
- Regehr – Voynov13:07
xG 0.10–0.39 (21%)attempts 10–10goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
LAK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line LAK is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (LAK − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).