Mon, Dec 2, 2013·Madison Square Garden, New York
Winnipeg Jets 5, New York Rangers 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 06 | 213 | 311 | 530 |
| NYR | 111 | 115 | 011 | 237 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:49NYRMats ZuccarelloAssists: Ryan McDonagh · Tip-in, 0.10 xG0–1
- P2 8:16WPGDevin SetoguchiAssists: Olli Jokinen, Chris Thorburn · Snap, 0.03 xG1–1
- P2 10:00WPGJohn AlbertAssists: Dustin Byfuglien · Snap, 0.04 xG2–1
- P2 15:50NYRRyan CallahanAssists: Brad Richards, Benoit Pouliot · Backhand, 0.23 xG2–2
- P3 12:42WPGOlli JokinenGWGAssists: Chris Thorburn, Devin Setoguchi · Snap, 0.16 xG3–2
- P3 18:06WPGOlli JokinenAssists: Michael Frolik, Jacob Trouba · Snap, 0.19 xG4–2
- P3 19:09WPGBlake WheelerENAssists: Jacob Trouba, Bryan Little · Wrist, 0.64 xG5–2
Penalties (6)
- P1 11:21NYRDerick Brassard: Tripping2 min
- P1 16:46WPGAnthony Peluso: Fighting5 min
- P1 16:46NYRJustin Falk: Fighting5 min
- P1 18:45WPGBlake Wheeler: Slashing2 min
- P2 3:37NYRChris Kreider: Holding2 min
- P3 7:11WPGMark Stuart: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Little won the faceoff against Stepan
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestJokinen – Thorburn – Setoguchi9:19
xG 0.71–0.27 (73%)attempts 11–7goals 2–0
- Albert – Peluso – Wright7:29
xG 0.40–0.30 (57%)attempts 5–8goals 1–1
- Ladd – Wheeler – Little11:17
xG 0.58–0.78 (42%)attempts 10–16goals 0–1
- Frolik – Halischuk – Scheifele11:18
xG 0.18–0.66 (21%)attempts 3–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestClitsome – Trouba13:44
xG 0.80–0.56 (59%)attempts 11–15goals 2–0
- Enstrom – Byfuglien19:33
xG 0.88–0.84 (51%)attempts 14–16goals 0–0
- Stuart – Ellerby11:47
xG 0.43–0.67 (39%)attempts 6–14goals 1–1
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestRichards – Callahan – Brassard6:19
xG 0.50–0.18 (74%)attempts 7–3goals 0–1
- Nash – Stepan – Kreider13:55
xG 0.61–0.34 (64%)attempts 14–7goals 0–0
- Boyle – Pouliot – Dorsett3:23
xG 0.21–0.02 (92%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Richards – Callahan – Pouliot6:22
xG 0.56–0.61 (48%)attempts 11–7goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestGirardi – McDonagh12:34
xG 1.09–0.50 (68%)attempts 15–9goals 2–0
- Falk – Del Zotto10:06
xG 0.24–0.15 (60%)attempts 12–6goals 0–1
- Stralman – McDonagh2:14
xG 0.19–0.12 (62%)attempts 2–2goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).