Mon, Dec 2, 2013·Centre Bell, Montreal
New Jersey Devils 2, Montréal Canadiens 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 111 | 011 | 18 | 230 |
| MTL | 05 | 24 | 18 | 317 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:13NJDSteve BernierAssists: Anton Volchenkov, Adam Henrique · Tip-in, 0.16 xG1–0
- P2 8:49MTLRene BourqueAssists: David Desharnais, P.K. Subban · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–1
- P2 16:49MTLMax PaciorettyPPAssists: Andrei Markov, David Desharnais · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–2
- P3 4:42NJDMichael RyderAssists: Mark Fayne, Eric Gelinas · Slap, 0.04 xG2–2
- P3 9:34MTLAlex GalchenyukGWGAssists: Lars Eller, Alexei Emelin · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–3
Penalties (5)
- P1 18:14MTLMichael Bournival: Hooking2 min
- P2 2:04NJDMichael Ryder: Holding2 min
- P2 9:22MTLLars Eller: High sticking2 min
- P2 15:49NJDDainius Zubrus: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 13:51MTLAlexei Emelin: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Elias won the faceoff against Eller
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestJagr – Zubrus – Zajac14:52
xG 0.79–0.21 (79%)attempts 17–8goals 0–0
- Elias – Bernier – Henrique7:09
xG 0.36–0.05 (87%)attempts 10–4goals 1–1
- Ryder – Sestito – Loktionov2:36
xG 0.10–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Elias – Bernier – Brunner4:43
xG 0.14–0.08 (63%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFayne – Greene12:23
xG 0.75–0.01 (98%)attempts 17–5goals 1–0
- Gelinas – Merrill15:20
xG 0.56–0.30 (65%)attempts 20–9goals 0–1
- Volchenkov – Zidlicky13:40
xG 0.28–0.37 (43%)attempts 11–9goals 1–1
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestDesharnais – Pacioretty – Gallagher14:02
xG 0.32–0.13 (72%)attempts 12–12goals 0–0
- Moen – Prust – Bournival2:06
xG 0.00–0.00 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
- Gionta – Moen – Plekanec8:55
xG 0.18–0.24 (43%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Bourque – Eller – Galchenyuk10:16
xG 0.19–0.37 (35%)attempts 5–11goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Murray – Diaz10:53
xG 0.28–0.28 (50%)attempts 6–11goals 0–2
- Gorges – Emelin13:57
xG 0.23–0.38 (38%)attempts 2–14goals 1–0
- Gorges – Diaz4:07
xG 0.00–0.27 (0%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).