Tue, Dec 3, 2013·Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum, Uniondale
Pittsburgh Penguins 3, New York Islanders 2 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 010 | 18 | 112 | 14 | 334 |
| NYI | 29 | 08 | 06 | 00 | 223 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:53NYIKyle OkposoAssists: John Tavares, Thomas Vanek · Deflected, 0.16 xG0–1
- P1 12:55NYIKyle OkposoAssists: John Tavares, Andrew MacDonald · Slap, 0.05 xG0–2
- P2 19:44PITJames NealPPAssists: Evgeni Malkin, Chris Kunitz · Snap, 0.19 xG1–2
- P3 8:00PITSidney CrosbyPPAssists: Evgeni Malkin · Snap, 0.14 xG2–2
- OT 3:44PITSidney CrosbyGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.27 xG3–2
Penalties (11)
- P1 18:05NYIThomas Vanek: Holding the stick2 min
- P1 19:22NYIAaron Ness: High sticking2 min
- P2 14:49PITJames Neal: Elbowing2 min
- P2 19:15NYIJohn Tavares: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P3 6:42NYIAaron Ness: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 8:37NYIMatt Martin: Roughing2 min
- P3 8:37PITBrooks Orpik: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 13:16NYICal Clutterbuck: Roughing2 min
- P3 13:16PITEvgeni Malkin: Roughing2 min
- P3 18:13PITEvgeni Malkin: Cross checking2 min
- P3 19:36NYIThomas Vanek: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Tavares
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestJokinen – Malkin – Neal9:14
xG 0.93–0.17 (85%)attempts 13–4goals 0–0
- Malkin – Crosby – Neal3:27
xG 0.44–0.27 (62%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Adams – Vitale – Sill5:08
xG 0.22–0.22 (50%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Dupuis – Kunitz – Crosby7:56
xG 0.25–0.37 (41%)attempts 8–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestNiskanen – Despres15:16
xG 1.15–0.65 (64%)attempts 18–12goals 0–0
- Letang – Maatta13:20
xG 0.93–0.75 (55%)attempts 19–9goals 0–1
- Orpik – Engelland12:58
xG 0.45–1.16 (28%)attempts 13–15goals 0–1
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestNielsen – Grabner – Bailey10:02
xG 0.61–0.46 (57%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
- McDonald – Martin – Cizikas7:58
xG 0.47–0.33 (59%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
- Bouchard – Regin – Clutterbuck6:34
xG 0.23–0.30 (43%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
- Vanek – Okposo – Tavares12:31
xG 0.79–0.97 (45%)attempts 12–12goals 2–0
Defence pairs
- bestMacDonald – Hamonic17:56
xG 1.41–0.73 (66%)attempts 20–14goals 1–0
- Carkner – Ness8:37
xG 0.42–0.33 (56%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- Hickey – Ness2:43
xG 0.11–0.33 (24%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).