Tue, Dec 3, 2013·Rexall Place, Edmonton
Phoenix Coyotes 6, Edmonton Oilers 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHX | 111 | 27 | 315 | 633 |
| EDM | 18 | 18 | 017 | 233 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:37PHXMikkel BoedkerPPAssists: Radim Vrbata, David Schlemko · Wrist, 0.37 xG1–0
- P1 9:51EDMDavid PerronAssists: Mark Arcobello · Snap, 0.12 xG1–1
- P2 6:58PHXRadim VrbataAssists: Mike Ribeiro, Derek Morris · Snap, 0.17 xG2–1
- P2 7:56PHXShane DoanGWGAssists: Mike Ribeiro, Mikkel Boedker · Tip-in, 0.13 xG3–1
- P2 19:08EDMDavid PerronPPAssists: Ales Hemsky, Taylor Hall · Snap, 0.17 xG3–2
- P3 4:46PHXMike RibeiroAssists: Shane Doan, David Moss · Wrist, 0.08 xG4–2
- P3 9:33PHXKeith YandleAssists: Mikkel Boedker, Antoine Vermette · Slap, 0.02 xG5–2
- P3 10:15PHXDavid MossAssists: Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Jeff Halpern · Wrist, 0.37 xG6–2
Penalties (15)
- P1 1:48EDMDavid Perron: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 17:57EDMJeff Petry: Interference2 min
- P2 4:04PHXMichael Stone: Hooking2 min
- P2 9:13PHXDerek Morris: Hooking2 min
- P2 10:53EDMRyan Smyth: Slashing2 min
- P2 15:20PHXConnor Murphy: Holding2 min
- P2 18:01PHXMikkel Boedker: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P3 14:07PHXJordan Szwarz: Fighting5 min
- P3 14:07EDMAndrew Ference: Fighting5 min
- P3 14:07EDMAndrew Ference: Roughing2 min
- P3 14:07PHXJordan Szwarz: Roughing2 min
- P3 14:07PHXTim Kennedy: Charging2 min
- P3 15:48PHXDerek Morris: Slashing2 min
- P3 19:15PHXJeff Halpern: Cross checking2 min
- P3 19:15EDMDavid Perron: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Nugent-Hopkins won the faceoff against Vermette
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Phoenix Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestHalpern – Chipchura – Szwarz4:13
xG 0.21–0.08 (71%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Ribeiro – Moss – Klinkhammer3:34
xG 0.08–0.04 (69%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Vrbata – Chipchura – Hanzal4:39
xG 0.15–0.21 (42%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Vermette – Moss – Klinkhammer2:55
xG 0.00–0.17 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMorris – Schlemko12:56
xG 0.93–0.42 (69%)attempts 14–7goals 1–1
- Stone – Ekman-Larsson11:49
xG 0.97–0.83 (54%)attempts 13–13goals 2–0
- Yandle – Murphy13:57
xG 0.27–1.01 (21%)attempts 7–18goals 1–0
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestPerron – Arcobello – Yakupov8:36
xG 1.02–0.09 (92%)attempts 13–2goals 1–0
- Hemsky – Jones – Gagner10:25
xG 0.42–0.30 (58%)attempts 9–8goals 0–1
- Eberle – Hall – Nugent-Hopkins10:32
xG 0.77–0.83 (48%)attempts 11–10goals 0–0
- Smyth – Joensuu – Acton6:24
xG 0.05–0.70 (7%)attempts 3–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestFerence – Petry11:37
xG 1.22–0.77 (61%)attempts 17–9goals 0–2
- Schultz – Belov9:00
xG 0.28–0.33 (46%)attempts 4–8goals 1–0
- Grebeshkov – Schultz13:20
xG 0.40–0.61 (39%)attempts 12–12goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it PHX. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − PHX), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).