Wed, Dec 4, 2013·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Phoenix Coyotes 1, Calgary Flames 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Phoenix Coyotes win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHX | 111 | 010 | 09 | 130 |
| CGY | 13 | 211 | 14 | 418 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:47PHXKeith YandleAssists: Shane Doan, Antoine Vermette · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–0
- P1 19:52CGYTJ BrodieAssists: Matt Stajan, Jiri Hudler · Slap, 0.07 xG1–1
- P2 5:48CGYMikael BacklundGWGAssists: Jiri Hudler, Chris Butler · Snap, 0.04 xG1–2
- P2 11:46CGYMark GiordanoPPAssists: TJ Brodie, Joe Colborne · Slap, 0.02 xG1–3
- P3 2:44CGYLee StempniakSHAssists: Matt Stajan, Mark Giordano · Snap, 0.18 xG1–4
Penalties (8)
- P1 8:01CGYLadislav Smid: High sticking2 min
- P1 14:14PHXMartin Hanzal: Hooking2 min
- P2 0:42CGYJiri Hudler: High sticking2 min
- P2 9:48PHXMartin Hanzal: Boarding2 min · PPG
- P2 15:31CGYShane O'Brien: Roughing2 min
- P3 1:04CGYKarri Ramo: High sticking2 min
- P3 4:06PHXConnor Murphy: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 4:19CGYKarri Ramo: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Colborne won the faceoff against Hanzal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Phoenix Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestDoan – Vermette – Boedker10:13
xG 0.45–0.08 (85%)attempts 12–5goals 1–0
- Halpern – Kennedy – Szwarz3:02
xG 0.22–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Ribeiro – Moss – Klinkhammer5:48
xG 0.70–0.56 (56%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
- Ribeiro – Vrbata – Hanzal3:29
xG 0.10–0.07 (59%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestYandle – Murphy10:19
xG 0.88–0.58 (60%)attempts 16–10goals 1–0
- Morris – Yandle6:39
xG 0.30–0.20 (59%)attempts 11–3goals 0–0
- Stone – Ekman-Larsson13:33
xG 0.20–0.12 (62%)attempts 10–6goals 0–1
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- Jones – Colborne – Baertschi8:47
xG 0.50–0.52 (49%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
- Hudler – Jones – Backlund8:29
xG 0.28–0.40 (41%)attempts 5–11goals 1–0
- McGrattan – Byron – Bouma6:11
xG 0.02–0.19 (11%)attempts 2–8goals 0–0
- Cammalleri – Stajan – Stempniak11:25
xG 0.24–0.54 (31%)attempts 5–13goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestRussell – Brodie17:02
xG 0.68–0.42 (62%)attempts 14–14goals 2–0
- Giordano – Butler11:39
xG 0.12–0.32 (28%)attempts 6–14goals 0–0
- Smid – Butler2:09
xG 0.00–0.21 (0%)attempts 0–5goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it PHX. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Phoenix Coyotes win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − PHX), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).