Thu, Dec 5, 2013·Air Canada Centre, Toronto
Dallas Stars 2, Toronto Maple Leafs 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 015 | 012 | 217 | 06 | 250 |
| TOR | 07 | 18 | 17 | 12 | 324 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 0:58TORNazem KadriAssists: James van Riemsdyk, Phil Kessel · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–1
- P3 1:52DALErik ColeAssists: Shawn Horcoff, Valeri Nichushkin · Tip-in, 0.08 xG1–1
- P3 6:58TORNazem KadriPPAssists: Cody Franson, Phil Kessel · Tip-in, 0.10 xG1–2
- P3 17:14DALShawn HorcoffPPAssists: Kevin Connauton, Sergei Gonchar · Tip-in, 0.11 xG2–2
- OT 4:18TORTrevor SmithGWGAssists: Jake Gardiner, Dion Phaneuf · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–3
Penalties (8)
- P1 11:11TORDion Phaneuf: Roughing2 min
- P1 11:11DALJamie Benn: Roughing2 min
- P1 13:12TORCody Franson: High sticking2 min
- P2 6:36TORNazem Kadri: Interference2 min
- P2 11:25DALVernon Fiddler: Holding2 min
- P3 6:18DALAlex Goligoski: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P3 7:51TORMark Fraser: Hooking2 min
- P3 15:18TORJay McClement: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Seguin won the faceoff against Kadri
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestWhitney – Chiasson – Eakin9:59
xG 0.54–0.09 (85%)attempts 15–5goals 0–0
- Cole – Horcoff – Nichushkin10:37
xG 0.51–0.14 (78%)attempts 12–5goals 1–0
- Fiddler – Jeffrey – Roussel5:54
xG 0.27–0.15 (64%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Peverley – Benn – Seguin11:36
xG 0.65–0.63 (51%)attempts 21–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGonchar – Connauton8:41
xG 0.48–0.14 (77%)attempts 16–3goals 0–0
- Gonchar – Oleksiak4:33
xG 0.27–0.08 (77%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- Goligoski – Connauton2:12
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–2goals 1–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestKessel – van Riemsdyk – Kadri14:26
xG 0.90–0.38 (70%)attempts 13–17goals 1–0
- McClement – McLaren – D'Amigo2:12
xG 0.07–0.01 (84%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- McClement – Kulemin – Ashton5:10
xG 0.11–0.12 (47%)attempts 4–5goals 0–1
- Kulemin – Ashton – Holland3:21
xG 0.00–0.01 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPhaneuf – Gardiner2:14
xG 0.37–0.02 (95%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Franson – Gardiner16:10
xG 0.43–0.51 (46%)attempts 12–14goals 0–0
- Phaneuf – Gunnarsson12:38
xG 0.69–0.86 (44%)attempts 9–24goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).