Thu, Dec 5, 2013·CONSOL Energy Center, Pittsburgh
San Jose Sharks 1, Pittsburgh Penguins 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 79% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 07 | 124 | 014 | 145 |
| PIT | 012 | 415 | 13 | 530 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 0:27PITPascal DupuisAssists: Brooks Orpik, Sidney Crosby · Tip-in, 0.09 xG0–1
- P2 2:34PITJayson MegnaGWGAssists: Simon Despres · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–2
- P2 5:27PITChris KunitzAssists: Sidney Crosby, James Neal · Backhand, 0.07 xG0–3
- P2 7:30PITChris KunitzPPAssists: James Neal, Sidney Crosby · Snap, 0.16 xG0–4
- P2 9:27SJSTomas HertlAssists: Joe Thornton, Brent Burns · Wrist, 0.20 xG1–4
- P3 3:30PITKris LetangAssists: Olli Maatta, Joe Vitale · Snap, 0.04 xG1–5
Penalties (5)
- P1 5:58SJSJohn McCarthy: Hooking2 min
- P2 2:46PITMatt Niskanen: Interference2 min
- P2 7:16SJSJohn McCarthy: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 9:54PITJames Neal: Interference2 min
- P3 5:16PITMatt Niskanen: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Sutter won the faceoff against Couture
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestDesjardins – Sheppard – McCarthy4:17
xG 0.61–0.38 (61%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Marleau – Couture – Wingels10:02
xG 0.59–0.45 (56%)attempts 17–11goals 0–2
- Pavelski – Sheppard – McCarthy4:47
xG 0.17–0.04 (82%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Havlat – Kennedy – Desjardins4:51
xG 0.20–0.08 (72%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStuart – Braun5:00
xG 0.32–0.00 (100%)attempts 10–2goals 0–0
- Vlasic – Braun9:16
xG 0.61–0.30 (67%)attempts 13–10goals 0–1
- Hannan – Demers10:46
xG 0.76–0.47 (62%)attempts 17–12goals 0–2
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestAdams – Kobasew – Jokinen3:09
xG 0.11–0.01 (91%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Adams – Kobasew – Vitale2:28
xG 0.05–0.01 (81%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Dupuis – Kunitz – Crosby5:15
xG 0.11–0.10 (53%)attempts 4–7goals 1–0
- Kunitz – Crosby – Vitale6:37
xG 0.13–0.33 (29%)attempts 8–5goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestNiskanen – Despres15:10
xG 0.65–0.28 (70%)attempts 19–13goals 2–0
- Orpik – Engelland15:08
xG 0.23–0.66 (26%)attempts 9–14goals 1–1
- Letang – Maatta16:31
xG 0.38–1.03 (27%)attempts 14–24goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 79% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).