Thu, Dec 5, 2013·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Chicago Blackhawks 3, Minnesota Wild 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 07 | 18 | 24 | 319 |
| MIN | 18 | 18 | 27 | 423 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:23MINMatt CookeAssists: Torrey Mitchell, Erik Haula · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–1
- P2 16:59MINZach ParisePPAssists: Dany Heatley, Jason Pominville · Wrist, 0.23 xG0–2
- P2 19:43CHIJeremy MorinAssists: Joakim Nordstrom, Patrick Kane · Backhand, 0.07 xG1–2
- P3 0:43CHIBrandon SaadUnassisted · Snap, 0.05 xG2–2
- P3 6:35CHIMarian HossaPPAssists: Kris Versteeg, Nick Leddy · Snap, 0.04 xG3–2
- P3 14:21MINJonas BrodinPPAssists: Jared Spurgeon, Justin Fontaine · Wrist, 0.29 xG3–3
- P3 18:12MINMarco ScandellaGWGAssists: Jared Spurgeon, Charlie Coyle · Wrist, 0.01 xG3–4
Penalties (5)
- P2 0:11CHIDuncan Keith: Interference2 min
- P2 11:54MINRyan Suter: Hooking2 min
- P2 16:18CHIPatrick Sharp: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 5:12MINNino Niederreiter: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 13:50CHIBrent Seabrook: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Toews won the faceoff against Brodziak
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestHossa – Sharp – Toews14:25
xG 0.33–0.17 (66%)attempts 12–6goals 0–1
- Versteeg – Kane – Saad11:09
xG 0.16–0.08 (66%)attempts 10–7goals 1–0
- Smith – Kruger – Bollig8:53
xG 0.03–0.11 (21%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKeith – Seabrook15:57
xG 0.52–0.30 (64%)attempts 14–12goals 0–2
- Rozsival – Leddy11:17
xG 0.18–0.06 (76%)attempts 9–5goals 1–0
- Oduya – Hjalmarsson14:39
xG 0.14–0.25 (35%)attempts 6–8goals 1–0
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestHeatley – Coyle – Niederreiter10:54
xG 0.12–0.03 (80%)attempts 7–5goals 1–0
- Rupp – Haula – Fontaine4:52
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Koivu – Pominville – Parise13:37
xG 0.27–0.40 (41%)attempts 12–11goals 0–0
- Cooke – Brodziak – Mitchell10:24
xG 0.10–0.26 (27%)attempts 4–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBallard – Stoner8:15
xG 0.19–0.04 (81%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Suter – Brodin18:24
xG 0.33–0.36 (48%)attempts 12–13goals 1–1
- Scandella – Spurgeon13:50
xG 0.20–0.24 (45%)attempts 9–7goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).