Thu, Dec 5, 2013·Rexall Place, Edmonton
Colorado Avalanche 2, Edmonton Oilers 8
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 010 | 213 | 012 | 235 |
| EDM | 38 | 19 | 411 | 828 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:44EDMTaylor HallAssists: Philip Larsen · Wrist, 0.22 xG0–1
- P1 17:42EDMTaylor HallPPAssists: Justin Schultz, Jordan Eberle · Slap, 0.06 xG0–2
- P1 17:57EDMAles HemskyPPGWGAssists: Ryan Smyth, Mark Arcobello · Backhand, 0.13 xG0–3
- P2 4:20COLNick HoldenAssists: Matt Duchene · Deflected, 0.01 xG1–3
- P2 9:28COLPA ParenteauAssists: Gabriel Landeskog, Erik Johnson · Wrist, 0.30 xG2–3
- P2 12:06EDMDavid PerronUnassisted · Snap, 0.08 xG2–4
- P3 8:55EDMMark ArcobelloAssists: Ales Hemsky, Ryan Smyth · Snap, 0.23 xG2–5
- P3 15:19EDMJordan EberleAssists: Ryan Smyth, David Perron · Snap, 0.27 xG2–6
- P3 18:30EDMSam GagnerAssists: Taylor Hall · Snap, 0.09 xG2–7
- P3 19:49EDMTaylor HallPPAssists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Corey Potter · Snap, 0.53 xG2–8
Penalties (19)
- P1 6:02EDMRyan Jones: Holding2 min
- P1 6:48EDMCorey Potter: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 15:51COLPA Parenteau: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P1 16:10COLMarc-Andre Cliche: Broken stick2 min · PPG
- P1 18:39EDMDavid Perron: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 7:07COLJamie McGinn: Interference2 min
- P2 10:15COLPA Parenteau: Hooking2 min
- P2 10:15EDMTaylor Hall: Diving2 min
- P2 12:38COLNick Holden: Tripping2 min
- P2 14:15COLAndre Benoit: Slashing2 min
- P3 2:34COLPatrick Bordeleau: Fighting5 min
- P3 2:34EDMLuke Gazdic: Fighting5 min
- P3 2:34COLPatrick Bordeleau: Charging2 min
- P3 2:34EDMLuke Gazdic: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 5:38EDMAles Hemsky: Roughing2 min
- P3 6:29COLPA Parenteau: High sticking2 min
- P3 13:02EDMDavid Perron: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 16:32EDMMartin Marincin: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 18:18COLNathan MacKinnon: High sticking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stastny won the faceoff against Gagner
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestParenteau – Stastny – Landeskog8:42
xG 0.54–0.37 (59%)attempts 15–5goals 0–1
- O'Reilly – Duchene – MacKinnon7:57
xG 0.38–0.22 (64%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Bordeleau – McLeod – Cliche2:33
xG 0.03–0.03 (47%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Talbot – Mitchell – McGinn8:40
xG 0.10–0.45 (18%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBenoit – Johnson3:58
xG 0.27–0.14 (67%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Guenin – Johnson2:36
xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Benoit – Barrie2:22
xG 0.07–0.02 (82%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestSmyth – Hemsky – Arcobello6:23
xG 0.43–0.13 (76%)attempts 6–5goals 1–0
- Gagner – Hall – Yakupov8:41
xG 0.52–0.32 (62%)attempts 6–11goals 1–1
- Jones – Gazdic – Lander3:02
xG 0.03–0.04 (47%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Perron – Eberle – Nugent-Hopkins8:48
xG 0.38–0.40 (48%)attempts 9–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPotter – Marincin9:28
xG 0.54–0.13 (80%)attempts 6–8goals 1–0
- Ference – Larsen12:29
xG 0.44–0.47 (48%)attempts 8–14goals 1–0
- Schultz – Schultz10:30
xG 0.39–0.46 (46%)attempts 7–15goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).