Fri, Dec 6, 2013·Prudential Center, Newark
Detroit Red Wings 3, New Jersey Devils 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 08 | 18 | 25 | 321 |
| NJD | 14 | 04 | 03 | 111 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:43NJDAndy GreenePPAssists: Patrik Elias · Tip-in, 0.20 xG0–1
- P2 19:24DETJoakim AnderssonAssists: Drew Miller, Daniel Alfredsson · Tip-in, 0.18 xG1–1
- P3 12:40DETJohan FranzenGWGAssists: Gustav Nyquist, Tomas Tatar · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–1
- P3 18:57DETTomas TatarPPUnassisted · Snap, 0.10 xG3–1
Penalties (9)
- P1 1:24DETBrendan Smith: Cross checking2 min
- P1 13:06DETJohan Franzen: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 5:32NJDSteve Bernier: Interference2 min
- P2 12:25DETJonathan Ericsson: Holding2 min
- P3 1:59NJDMichael Ryder: Hooking2 min
- P3 5:15NJDMarek Zidlicky: Tripping2 min
- P3 9:39DETCory Emmerton: Hooking2 min
- P3 14:51NJDTravis Zajac: Slashing2 min
- P3 18:52NJDCory Schneider: Delaying game illegal play by goalie2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Elias won the faceoff against Franzen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestAlfredsson – Weiss – Abdelkader10:49
xG 0.23–0.03 (90%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Franzen – Nyquist – Tatar3:03
xG 0.12–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 1–0
- Miller – Andersson – Tatar7:52
xG 0.09–0.15 (37%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
- Cleary – Samuelsson – Emmerton4:57
xG 0.23–0.29 (44%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestQuincey – Smith12:32
xG 0.49–0.32 (61%)attempts 7–5goals 1–0
- Kronwall – Ericsson15:09
xG 0.34–0.26 (57%)attempts 10–5goals 1–0
- Kronwall – Smith3:31
xG 0.06–0.09 (42%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestJanssen – Sestito – Josefson3:09
xG 0.33–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Jagr – Zubrus – Zajac11:30
xG 0.37–0.34 (52%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Elias – Bernier – Henrique6:48
xG 0.15–0.15 (50%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Ryder – Loktionov – Boucher6:14
xG 0.00–0.23 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestVolchenkov – Zidlicky11:32
xG 0.46–0.33 (59%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
- Gelinas – Merrill14:09
xG 0.29–0.42 (41%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
- Fayne – Greene11:45
xG 0.15–0.35 (30%)attempts 6–5goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).