Fri, Dec 6, 2013·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Minnesota Wild 0, Columbus Blue Jackets 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 79% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 07 | 08 | 05 | 020 |
| CBJ | 09 | 218 | 214 | 441 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 1:17CBJCam AtkinsonGWGAssists: Brandon Dubinsky · Snap, 0.04 xG0–1
- P2 5:40CBJNick FolignoPPAssists: Ryan Johansen, R.J. Umberger · Backhand, 0.31 xG0–2
- P3 4:38CBJBoone JennerAssists: Blake Comeau, Artem Anisimov · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–3
- P3 9:05CBJR.J. UmbergerAssists: Nick Foligno, Ryan Johansen · Wrist, 0.16 xG0–4
Penalties (10)
- P1 8:40CBJFedor Tyutin: Cross checking2 min
- P1 17:00MINKeith Ballard: Roughing2 min
- P2 4:37MINMatt Cooke: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 6:15CBJArtem Anisimov: Hooking2 min
- P2 7:03CBJBrandon Dubinsky: Slashing2 min
- P2 16:53CBJR.J. Umberger: Boarding2 min
- P2 16:53MINRyan Suter: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:22CBJR.J. Umberger: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:22MINKeith Ballard: High sticking2 min
- P3 1:30MINClayton Stoner: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Johansen won the faceoff against Koivu
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- Koivu – Pominville – Parise12:07
xG 0.18–0.16 (53%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Heatley – Coyle – Niederreiter7:33
xG 0.09–0.39 (18%)attempts 4–7goals 0–2
- Cooke – Brodziak – Mitchell9:33
xG 0.14–0.60 (19%)attempts 6–14goals 0–0
- Rupp – Haula – Fontaine6:05
xG 0.00–0.47 (0%)attempts 2–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Stoner – Spurgeon2:23
xG 0.00–0.03 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- Ballard – Scandella2:11
xG 0.07–0.12 (38%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Suter – Brodin12:39
xG 0.22–0.38 (37%)attempts 10–11goals 0–0
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestComeau – Anisimov – Jenner8:04
xG 0.72–0.00 (100%)attempts 12–0goals 1–0
- Dubinsky – Calvert – Atkinson8:39
xG 0.46–0.07 (87%)attempts 10–6goals 1–0
- Umberger – Foligno – Johansen11:33
xG 0.29–0.20 (59%)attempts 6–9goals 1–0
- MacKenzie – Letestu – Tropp6:32
xG 0.06–0.07 (45%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWisniewski – Murray11:44
xG 1.09–0.10 (92%)attempts 23–4goals 3–0
- Nikitin – Prout16:43
xG 0.57–0.36 (61%)attempts 11–15goals 0–0
- Tyutin – Johnson12:44
xG 0.14–0.06 (68%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 79% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).