Sat, Dec 7, 2013·Centre Bell, Montreal
Buffalo Sabres 2, Montréal Canadiens 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 05 | 112 | 18 | 225 |
| MTL | 04 | 311 | 04 | 319 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 0:19MTLBrandon PrustAssists: Ryan White, Travis Moen · Wrist, 0.09 xG0–1
- P2 8:35BUFTyler EnnisAssists: Christian Ehrhoff, Cody Hodgson · Slap, 0.06 xG1–1
- P2 17:44MTLTomas PlekanecAssists: Brandon Prust, Travis Moen · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–2
- P2 18:07MTLAlex GalchenyukGWGAssists: Andrei Markov, Tomas Plekanec · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–3
- P3 4:04BUFZemgus GirgensonsAssists: Tyler Ennis, Henrik Tallinder · Wrist, 0.22 xG2–3
Penalties (2)
- P2 11:26BUFMark Pysyk: Slashing2 min
- P3 11:08MTLP.K. Subban: Holding the stick2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Leino won the faceoff against Desharnais
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestMoulson – Stafford – Hodgson15:32
xG 0.54–0.28 (66%)attempts 16–10goals 0–0
- McCormick – Foligno – Flynn8:09
xG 0.17–0.10 (64%)attempts 8–1goals 0–0
- Ott – D'Agostini – Leino9:20
xG 0.20–0.24 (46%)attempts 7–7goals 0–2
- Ennis – Adam – Girgensons12:14
xG 0.26–0.39 (40%)attempts 9–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestTallinder – Myers16:27
xG 0.68–0.31 (69%)attempts 16–7goals 1–1
- Ehrhoff – McBain18:50
xG 0.55–0.59 (48%)attempts 14–19goals 1–1
- Weber – Pysyk15:42
xG 0.23–0.34 (41%)attempts 15–7goals 0–1
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestDesharnais – Pacioretty – Gallagher14:04
xG 0.53–0.17 (76%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
- Gionta – Plekanec – Galchenyuk7:17
xG 0.46–0.22 (68%)attempts 6–4goals 1–0
- Moen – Prust – White10:25
xG 0.32–0.15 (68%)attempts 9–9goals 1–0
- Brière – Eller – Galchenyuk3:37
xG 0.01–0.02 (21%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Murray – Diaz13:42
xG 0.39–0.38 (51%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
- Gorges – Emelin16:21
xG 0.17–0.31 (36%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
- Markov – Subban18:54
xG 0.36–0.52 (41%)attempts 8–18goals 3–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).