Sat, Dec 7, 2013·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Toronto Maple Leafs 4, Ottawa Senators 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 112 | 28 | 07 | 04 | 2 | 431 |
| OTT | 119 | 013 | 214 | 04 | 0 | 350 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:37TORJames van RiemsdykPPAssists: Nazem Kadri, Dion Phaneuf · Backhand, 0.44 xG1–0
- P1 9:44OTTClarke MacArthurPPAssists: Mika Zibanejad, Jason Spezza · Slap, 0.14 xG1–1
- P2 3:05TORPhil KesselAssists: James van Riemsdyk · Tip-in, 0.11 xG2–1
- P2 11:37TORJake GardinerAssists: Phil Kessel, James van Riemsdyk · Wrist, 0.02 xG3–1
- P3 2:23OTTErik CondraAssists: Colin Greening · Wrist, 0.10 xG3–2
- P3 10:30OTTErik KarlssonPPAssists: Mika Zibanejad, Jason Spezza · Wrist, 0.12 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. OTT Jason Spezza stopped
- 2. TOR James van Riemsdyk scored
- 3. OTT Milan Michalek stopped
- 4. TOR Mason Raymond scored
Penalties (19)
- P1 0:58OTTErik Karlsson: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 2:48TORMark Fraser: Hooking2 min
- P1 9:30TORJay McClement: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 11:46OTTPatrick Wiercioch: Holding2 min
- P1 16:51OTTKyle Turris: Hooking2 min
- P1 19:46TORDion Phaneuf: Slashing2 min
- P2 3:05OTTZack Smith: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 3:05OTTZack Smith: Misconduct10 min
- P2 4:28TORDavid Clarkson: High sticking2 min
- P2 6:38TORTrevor Smith: Tripping2 min
- P2 12:43OTTColin Greening: Holding2 min
- P2 15:53TORTrevor Smith: Tripping2 min
- P2 18:50OTTChris Neil: Fighting5 min
- P2 18:50TORFrazer McLaren: Fighting5 min
- P2 18:50OTTChris Neil: Misconduct10 min
- P2 18:50TORFrazer McLaren: Misconduct10 min
- P3 4:09TORCody Franson: Hooking2 min
- P3 9:27TORPhil Kessel: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P3 13:55OTTChris Phillips: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Turris won the faceoff against Smith
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestClarkson – Raymond – Smith10:29
xG 0.72–0.50 (59%)attempts 13–16goals 0–0
- McLaren – Holland – D'Amigo3:05
xG 0.06–0.12 (31%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
- Kessel – van Riemsdyk – Kadri13:05
xG 0.37–0.49 (43%)attempts 13–14goals 2–0
Defence pairs
- bestLiles – Gardiner2:37
xG 0.60–0.10 (86%)attempts 5–4goals 2–0
- Liles – Fraser8:55
xG 0.66–0.44 (60%)attempts 10–11goals 0–0
- Franson – Gardiner8:23
xG 0.25–0.56 (30%)attempts 9–10goals 0–1
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestSpezza – MacArthur – Zibanejad7:03
xG 0.38–0.16 (70%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
- Michalek – Ryan – Turris10:02
xG 0.39–0.18 (68%)attempts 10–8goals 0–1
- Greening – Condra – Smith4:11
xG 0.19–0.06 (76%)attempts 7–3goals 1–0
- Ryan – Turris – Hoffman2:37
xG 0.16–0.03 (84%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWiercioch – Cowen7:23
xG 0.64–0.31 (67%)attempts 19–10goals 1–0
- Phillips – Corvo8:58
xG 0.25–0.13 (67%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Corvo – Methot2:36
xG 0.06–0.04 (60%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).