Sat, Dec 7, 2013·Verizon Center, Washington
Nashville Predators 2, Washington Capitals 5
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 112 | 012 | 112 | 236 |
| WSH | 314 | 06 | 213 | 533 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:44WSHTroy BrouwerAssists: Eric Fehr, Mikhail Grabovski · Backhand, 0.31 xG0–1
- P1 13:09WSHAlex OvechkinPPAssists: Nicklas Backstrom · Slap, 0.05 xG0–2
- P1 16:19WSHKarl AlznerGWGAssists: Mike Green, Nicklas Backstrom · Slap, 0.03 xG0–3
- P1 19:37NSHRoman JosiAssists: Shea Weber · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–3
- P3 3:29WSHNate SchmidtAssists: Martin Erat, Joel Ward · Slap, 0.03 xG1–4
- P3 3:52NSHEric NystromAssists: Viktor Stalberg, Roman Josi · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–4
- P3 14:50WSHEric FehrAssists: Mikhail Grabovski · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–5
Penalties (7)
- P1 2:43WSHJay Beagle: Tripping2 min
- P1 13:06NSHRich Clune: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 16:30WSHTom Wilson: Fighting5 min
- P1 16:30NSHRich Clune: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P1 16:30NSHRich Clune: Fighting5 min
- P3 8:18NSHPaul Gaustad: Holding2 min
- P3 17:48NSHMatt Cullen: Delaying game smothering puck2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Gaustad won the faceoff against Erat
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestLegwand – Hornqvist – Bourque12:20
xG 0.89–0.46 (66%)attempts 19–14goals 0–2
- Hendricks – Gaustad – Clune5:35
xG 0.19–0.19 (50%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Cullen – Spaling – Wilson3:15
xG 0.05–0.08 (36%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Fisher – Nystrom – Stalberg5:49
xG 0.11–0.17 (40%)attempts 5–4goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestWeber – Josi21:16
xG 0.88–0.32 (74%)attempts 26–18goals 2–2
- Ellis – Jones10:24
xG 0.75–0.49 (60%)attempts 16–9goals 0–1
- Klein – Bartley16:12
xG 0.55–1.31 (30%)attempts 14–23goals 0–0
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestChimera – Erat – Ward11:01
xG 0.90–0.34 (73%)attempts 16–5goals 1–0
- Ovechkin – Backstrom – Johansson13:09
xG 0.22–0.15 (59%)attempts 13–17goals 1–0
- Fehr – Grabovski – Brouwer11:12
xG 0.70–0.74 (49%)attempts 17–14goals 2–1
- Beagle – Volpatti – Wilson7:36
xG 0.26–0.48 (35%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGreen – Orlov2:01
xG 0.24–0.03 (88%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Carlson – Schmidt17:02
xG 0.91–0.70 (56%)attempts 19–17goals 3–0
- Green – Alzner17:36
xG 0.42–0.69 (38%)attempts 13–24goals 1–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).