Sat, Dec 7, 2013·Madison Square Garden, New York
New Jersey Devils 4, New York Rangers 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 09 | 111 | 23 | 11 | 424 |
| NYR | 18 | 18 | 18 | 00 | 324 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:32NYRBrad RichardsAssists: Mats Zuccarello, Justin Falk · Snap, 0.07 xG0–1
- P2 0:57NYRMats ZuccarelloAssists: Ryan Callahan, Dan Girardi · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–2
- P2 6:02NJDCam JanssenAssists: Tim Sestito, Martin Brodeur · Tip-in, 0.31 xG1–2
- P3 5:58NJDTravis ZajacAssists: Jaromir Jagr, Dainius Zubrus · Snap, 0.36 xG2–2
- P3 15:56NJDMichael RyderAssists: Tim Sestito · Wrist, 0.10 xG3–2
- P3 19:38NYRChris KreiderPPAssists: Ryan Callahan, Ryan McDonagh · Backhand, 0.11 xG3–3
- OT 1:15NJDEric GelinasPPGWGAssists: Patrik Elias, Jaromir Jagr · Slap, 0.05 xG4–3
Penalties (6)
- P1 14:03NJDDamien Brunner: Hooking2 min
- P2 19:19NYRBrian Boyle: Boarding2 min
- P3 3:03NJDEric Gelinas: Slashing2 min
- P3 9:24NJDDamien Brunner: Hooking2 min
- P3 18:49NJDTravis Zajac: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- OT 1:02NYRRyan Callahan: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Henrique won the faceoff against Richards
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestJanssen – Sestito – Loktionov4:44
xG 0.60–0.11 (85%)attempts 7–4goals 1–0
- Jagr – Zubrus – Zajac4:29
xG 0.45–0.03 (94%)attempts 3–2goals 1–0
- Jagr – Zajac – Boucher10:10
xG 0.51–0.28 (64%)attempts 11–11goals 0–1
- Elias – Zubrus – Brunner9:03
xG 0.42–0.20 (68%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFayne – Greene15:39
xG 1.49–0.27 (85%)attempts 21–12goals 2–0
- Gelinas – Merrill17:11
xG 0.66–0.36 (64%)attempts 13–12goals 0–0
- Volchenkov – Harrold11:39
xG 0.51–0.24 (68%)attempts 11–9goals 1–0
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestBrassard – Hagelin – Miller9:07
xG 0.30–0.14 (69%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Richards – Callahan – Zuccarello14:00
xG 0.47–0.33 (59%)attempts 9–9goals 2–0
- Nash – Stepan – Kreider13:15
xG 0.42–0.55 (43%)attempts 20–11goals 0–1
- Pyatt – Moore – Boyle7:45
xG 0.07–1.34 (5%)attempts 4–14goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestFalk – Moore12:23
xG 0.54–0.41 (57%)attempts 11–14goals 1–0
- Stralman – McDonagh2:27
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Girardi – McDonagh16:28
xG 0.35–0.84 (29%)attempts 16–11goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).