Sat, Dec 7, 2013·Scottrade Center, St. Louis
Anaheim Ducks 5, St. Louis Blues 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 39 | 17 | 17 | 523 |
| STL | 012 | 08 | 28 | 228 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:10ANAAndrew CoglianoAssists: Daniel Winnik, Saku Koivu · Tip-in, 0.18 xG1–0
- P1 5:36ANACorey PerryPPAssists: Ryan Getzlaf, Nick Bonino · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–0
- P1 7:29ANARyan GetzlafGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.03 xG3–0
- P2 17:16ANANick BoninoAssists: Patrick Maroon, Tim Jackman · Wrist, 0.14 xG4–0
- P3 1:18STLJaden SchwartzAssists: T.J. Oshie, Barret Jackman · Wrist, 0.22 xG4–1
- P3 6:38STLPatrik BerglundAssists: Maxim Lapierre, Kevin Shattenkirk · Wrist, 0.20 xG4–2
- P3 18:12ANAMark FistricENAssists: Andrew Cogliano · Wrist, 0.61 xG5–2
Penalties (7)
- P1 4:36STLAlex Pietrangelo: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P1 15:34ANAPatrick Maroon: High sticking double minor4 min
- P2 1:15ANASami Vatanen: High sticking double minor4 min
- P2 6:37STLDavid Backes: Roughing2 min
- P2 6:37ANACorey Perry: Slashing2 min
- P3 6:57STLAlex Pietrangelo: Hooking2 min
- P3 16:07ANAMark Fistric: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backes won the faceoff against Getzlaf
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestSteckel – Jackman – Maroon6:25
xG 0.18–0.02 (92%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Beleskey – Bonino – Palmieri7:16
xG 0.19–0.32 (38%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
- Koivu – Winnik – Cogliano9:51
xG 0.26–0.42 (38%)attempts 5–10goals 1–1
- Getzlaf – Perry – Penner9:42
xG 0.10–0.35 (23%)attempts 4–8goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestAllen – Vatanen12:27
xG 0.49–0.32 (60%)attempts 12–10goals 2–1
- Lovejoy – Fowler13:56
xG 0.20–0.31 (40%)attempts 4–14goals 0–0
- Fistric – Lindholm12:58
xG 0.32–0.57 (36%)attempts 8–13goals 0–1
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestBackes – Oshie – Schwartz5:02
xG 0.35–0.05 (88%)attempts 5–2goals 1–0
- Morrow – Roy – Stewart9:41
xG 0.37–0.07 (85%)attempts 13–4goals 0–0
- Steen – Sobotka – Tarasenko4:39
xG 0.13–0.06 (68%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Sobotka – Tarasenko – Schwartz7:11
xG 0.16–0.27 (37%)attempts 6–3goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestPolak – Cole10:59
xG 0.37–0.08 (83%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
- Jackman – Shattenkirk13:55
xG 0.88–0.59 (60%)attempts 19–10goals 2–1
- Bouwmeester – Pietrangelo17:11
xG 0.14–0.44 (25%)attempts 12–7goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).