Sat, Dec 7, 2013·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Philadelphia Flyers 1, Dallas Stars 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 111 | 06 | 011 | 128 |
| DAL | 013 | 413 | 18 | 534 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 18:51PHIAndrej MeszarosAssists: Wayne Simmonds, Brayden Schenn · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–0
- P2 0:39DALTyler SeguinAssists: Jamie Benn, Valeri Nichushkin · Snap, 0.16 xG1–1
- P2 17:03DALTyler SeguinGWGAssists: Alex Goligoski, Valeri Nichushkin · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–2
- P2 17:43DALTyler SeguinAssists: Valeri Nichushkin · Tip-in, 0.13 xG1–3
- P2 18:05DALValeri NichushkinAssists: Tyler Seguin, Alex Goligoski · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–4
- P3 15:27DALCody EakinSHAssists: Antoine Roussel · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–5
Penalties (15)
- P1 1:15PHIZac Rinaldo: Instigator2 min
- P1 1:15PHIZac Rinaldo: Fighting5 min
- P1 1:15PHIZac Rinaldo: Game misconduct10 min
- P1 1:15PHIZac Rinaldo: Misconduct10 min
- P1 9:36DALRyan Garbutt: Boarding2 min
- P1 16:05PHIMichael Raffl: Tripping2 min
- P2 6:12PHIKimmo Timonen: Hooking2 min
- P3 7:53DALJordie Benn: Interference2 min
- P3 14:59DALJordie Benn: Elbowing2 min
- P3 17:02DALBrenden Dillon: Roughing2 min
- P3 17:02PHISean Couturier: Roughing2 min
- P3 17:02PHISean Couturier: Misconduct10 min
- P3 17:02DALBrenden Dillon: Misconduct10 min
- P3 17:29DALTyler Seguin: Hooking2 min
- P3 18:43PHIWayne Simmonds: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Seguin won the faceoff against Giroux
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestSimmonds – Schenn – Raffl7:47
xG 0.33–0.20 (62%)attempts 7–4goals 1–0
- Downie – Read – Couturier9:01
xG 0.52–0.56 (48%)attempts 12–7goals 0–2
- Hartnell – Giroux – Voracek11:00
xG 0.31–0.68 (31%)attempts 15–14goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestStreit – Schenn3:25
xG 0.48–0.00 (100%)attempts 10–0goals 0–0
- Coburn – Grossmann4:43
xG 0.06–0.07 (44%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Timonen – Coburn5:55
xG 0.34–0.37 (48%)attempts 8–6goals 0–1
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestBenn – Seguin – Nichushkin11:12
xG 1.03–0.40 (72%)attempts 18–15goals 4–0
- Roussel – Eakin – Garbutt5:41
xG 0.28–0.15 (65%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
- Cole – Horcoff – Peverley9:29
xG 0.17–0.32 (35%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
- Whitney – Chiasson – Eakin4:08
xG 0.02–0.35 (6%)attempts 1–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGoligoski – Dillon14:48
xG 1.01–0.28 (78%)attempts 19–18goals 3–0
- Connauton – Oleksiak8:19
xG 0.35–0.37 (49%)attempts 7–12goals 1–0
- Gonchar – Benn11:12
xG 0.28–0.57 (33%)attempts 5–12goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).