Sat, Dec 7, 2013·STAPLES Center, Los Angeles
New York Islanders 0, Los Angeles Kings 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 07 | 04 | 05 | 016 |
| LAK | 06 | 110 | 28 | 324 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 12:08LAKAnze KopitarGWGAssists: Alec Martinez · Snap, 0.18 xG0–1
- P3 10:37LAKDustin BrownAssists: Jarret Stoll, Justin Williams · Wrap-around, 0.06 xG0–2
- P3 18:56LAKTyler ToffoliENAssists: Mike Richards, Drew Doughty · Wrist, 0.64 xG0–3
Penalties (15)
- P1 6:11NYICal Clutterbuck: Tripping2 min
- P1 12:18LAKJustin Williams: High sticking2 min
- P1 19:48NYIAndrew MacDonald: Hooking2 min
- P2 4:29LAKColin Fraser: Roughing2 min
- P2 4:29NYICal Clutterbuck: Roughing2 min
- P2 6:22LAKJarret Stoll: Holding2 min
- P2 14:10NYIJohn Tavares: Hooking2 min
- P2 15:12LAKJake Muzzin: High sticking2 min
- P3 0:25LAKDustin Brown: Roughing2 min
- P3 0:25NYICal Clutterbuck: Roughing2 min
- P3 11:28NYIThomas Vanek: Cross checking2 min
- P3 12:42LAKJarret Stoll: Tripping2 min
- P3 19:58NYIMatt Carkner: Slashing2 min
- P3 19:58NYIMatt Carkner: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:58LAKColin Fraser: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stoll won the faceoff against Nelson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestVanek – Okposo – Tavares9:38
xG 0.25–0.18 (59%)attempts 8–7goals 0–1
- Nielsen – Bouchard – Bailey6:16
xG 0.13–0.14 (48%)attempts 3–9goals 0–0
- McDonald – Martin – Cizikas7:21
xG 0.06–0.11 (37%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- Clutterbuck – Grabner – Nelson7:34
xG 0.19–0.27 (42%)attempts 6–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestCarkner – Ness10:42
xG 0.19–0.04 (83%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Hamonic – de Haan10:26
xG 0.38–0.27 (58%)attempts 9–6goals 0–1
- Hickey – Hamonic2:30
xG 0.02–0.05 (34%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestCarter – Kopitar – King4:18
xG 0.24–0.08 (74%)attempts 5–3goals 1–0
- Carter – Fraser – Kopitar2:18
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Williams – Stoll – Brown9:26
xG 0.16–0.18 (48%)attempts 6–4goals 1–0
- Fraser – Frattin – Nolan2:22
xG 0.01–0.15 (7%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMitchell – Martinez10:05
xG 0.36–0.11 (77%)attempts 11–6goals 1–0
- Mitchell – Doughty2:07
xG 0.10–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Mitchell – Voynov2:14
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
LAK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line LAK is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (LAK − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).