Sun, Dec 8, 2013·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
San Jose Sharks 1, Minnesota Wild 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 011 | 021 | 16 | 138 |
| MIN | 05 | 26 | 12 | 313 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 3:55MINZach PariseAssists: Jason Pominville, Marco Scandella · Backhand, 0.09 xG0–1
- P2 8:11MINMikko KoivuGWGAssists: Jared Spurgeon, Marco Scandella · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–2
- P3 18:19SJSPatrick MarleauAssists: Matt Irwin, Logan Couture · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–2
- P3 19:54MINZach PariseENAssists: Kyle Brodziak · Wrist, 0.61 xG1–3
Penalties (6)
- P1 7:08MINCharlie Coyle: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 1:12MINCharlie Coyle: Hooking2 min
- P2 9:30SJSBrad Stuart: Roughing2 min
- P2 13:33MINClayton Stoner: High sticking2 min
- P2 19:30SJSBrad Stuart: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 6:15MINNino Niederreiter: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- Press play, or drag along the timeline.
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestKennedy – Sheppard – Hamilton7:39
xG 0.28–0.04 (87%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Marleau – Pavelski – Couture9:45
xG 0.37–0.27 (58%)attempts 13–5goals 0–1
- Desjardins – Wingels – Nieto8:26
xG 0.08–0.18 (29%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestVlasic – Braun7:05
xG 0.27–0.09 (75%)attempts 7–4goals 0–1
- Boyle – Vlasic4:12
xG 0.04–0.03 (57%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Braun – Irwin3:08
xG 0.00–0.06 (0%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestHeatley – Coyle – Niederreiter12:13
xG 0.94–0.36 (72%)attempts 11–18goals 0–0
- Cooke – Brodziak – Mitchell7:46
xG 0.23–0.16 (59%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Konopka – Haula – Fontaine4:35
xG 0.01–0.12 (10%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Koivu – Pominville – Parise12:28
xG 0.23–0.36 (39%)attempts 9–11goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestSuter – Brodin21:11
xG 0.86–0.47 (65%)attempts 13–21goals 0–0
- Scandella – Spurgeon12:00
xG 0.40–0.29 (58%)attempts 8–12goals 2–0
- Ballard – Stoner10:14
xG 0.16–0.41 (28%)attempts 4–12goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).