Sun, Dec 8, 2013·Madison Square Garden, New York
Washington Capitals 4, New York Rangers 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 73% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 07 | 317 | 112 | 436 |
| NYR | 07 | 010 | 114 | 131 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 2:28WSHJason ChimeraAssists: Martin Erat, Steve Oleksy · Wrist, 0.30 xG1–0
- P2 2:53WSHSteve OleksyGWGAssists: Jay Beagle · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–0
- P2 18:26WSHMikhail GrabovskiUnassisted · Slap, 0.32 xG3–0
- P3 17:03WSHNate SchmidtUnassisted · Slap, 0.19 xG4–0
- P3 18:07NYRBenoit PouliotAssists: Michael Del Zotto · Tip-in, 0.07 xG4–1
Penalties (7)
- P1 17:42NYRChris Kreider: Interference2 min
- P2 5:04NYRChris Kreider: High sticking2 min
- P2 10:41WSHDmitry Orlov: Cross checking2 min
- P2 16:40WSHAlex Ovechkin: Roughing2 min
- P2 16:40NYRRick Nash: Roughing2 min
- P2 18:26NYRRyan McDonagh: Penalty shot hooking on breakaway0 min
- P3 9:07WSHSteve Oleksy: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Richards won the faceoff against Grabovski
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestOvechkin – Backstrom – Johansson13:04
xG 1.05–0.44 (70%)attempts 12–11goals 0–0
- Chimera – Erat – Ward9:25
xG 0.98–0.89 (53%)attempts 11–9goals 1–0
- Fehr – Grabovski – Brouwer11:30
xG 0.63–0.57 (52%)attempts 13–9goals 1–0
- Beagle – Volpatti – Wilson6:34
xG 0.29–0.32 (47%)attempts 5–6goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestOleksy – Schmidt11:27
xG 1.51–0.14 (91%)attempts 17–5goals 3–0
- Green – Alzner14:27
xG 0.79–0.61 (57%)attempts 17–13goals 0–0
- Orlov – Oleksy4:11
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestRichards – Hagelin – Zuccarello3:11
xG 0.70–0.27 (72%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
- Brassard – Kreider – Miller2:00
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Pyatt – Boyle – Pouliot7:43
xG 0.19–0.25 (44%)attempts 10–4goals 1–1
- Nash – Stepan – Kreider9:19
xG 0.48–0.56 (46%)attempts 6–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStralman – Del Zotto14:29
xG 1.27–0.86 (60%)attempts 13–15goals 1–1
- Girardi – McDonagh15:56
xG 0.68–0.76 (47%)attempts 12–13goals 0–1
- Girardi – Del Zotto2:23
xG 0.07–0.26 (22%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 73% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).