Mon, Dec 9, 2013·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Philadelphia Flyers 4, Ottawa Senators 5 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 15 | 210 | 111 | 03 | 0 | 429 |
| OTT | 19 | 19 | 215 | 01 | 1 | 534 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:18PHIMichael RafflAssists: Wayne Simmonds, Luke Schenn · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–0
- P1 10:37OTTClarke MacArthurAssists: Jason Spezza, Jared Cowen · Slap, 0.24 xG1–1
- P2 9:30OTTPatrick WierciochPPAssists: Bobby Ryan, Jason Spezza · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–2
- P2 11:43PHIJakub VoracekPPAssists: Kimmo Timonen, Scott Hartnell · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–2
- P2 13:33PHILuke SchennAssists: Michael Raffl, Wayne Simmonds · Snap, 0.21 xG3–2
- P3 2:21OTTClarke MacArthurAssists: Bobby Ryan, Erik Karlsson · Deflected, 0.25 xG3–3
- P3 8:21OTTKyle TurrisUnassisted · Wrist, 0.01 xG3–4
- P3 10:58PHIKimmo TimonenAssists: Sean Couturier · Wrist, 0.01 xG4–4
Shootout
- 1. OTT Clarke MacArthur stopped
- 2. PHI Matt Read stopped
- 3. OTT Bobby Ryan stopped
- 4. PHI Claude Giroux stopped
- 5. OTT Jason Spezza scored
- 6. PHI Sean Couturier stopped
Penalties (9)
- P1 9:23OTTMatt Kassian: Fighting5 min
- P1 9:23PHIJay Rosehill: Fighting5 min
- P1 10:58PHIMichael Raffl: Tripping2 min
- P1 14:27OTTChris Neil: Slashing2 min
- P1 19:49OTTKyle Turris: Fighting5 min
- P1 19:49PHISean Couturier: Fighting5 min
- P2 0:44PHIBraydon Coburn: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 7:50PHIMark Streit: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 10:49OTTMarc Methot: Holding2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Turris won the faceoff against Giroux
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestHartnell – Giroux – Voracek13:40
xG 1.63–0.26 (86%)attempts 19–14goals 0–0
- Simmonds – Schenn – Raffl9:23
xG 0.42–0.30 (59%)attempts 7–13goals 2–0
- Hall – Rosehill – Rinaldo2:19
xG 0.01–0.07 (15%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Downie – Read – Couturier10:19
xG 0.26–0.77 (25%)attempts 6–16goals 1–3
Defence pairs
- bestMeszaros – Schenn12:18
xG 0.46–0.37 (55%)attempts 11–13goals 2–0
- Timonen – Coburn14:47
xG 0.35–0.27 (56%)attempts 11–13goals 1–0
- Coburn – Grossmann2:36
xG 0.00–0.11 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestSpezza – MacArthur – Ryan5:41
xG 0.40–0.15 (73%)attempts 7–3goals 1–1
- Ryan – Turris – Conacher6:19
xG 0.19–0.04 (83%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
- Spezza – MacArthur – Condra5:13
xG 0.36–0.24 (61%)attempts 5–4goals 1–0
- Michalek – Condra – Turris2:41
xG 0.07–0.00 (99%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWiercioch – Cowen10:14
xG 0.27–0.15 (64%)attempts 16–7goals 1–0
- Karlsson – Cowen3:04
xG 0.04–0.09 (32%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Phillips – Karlsson2:23
xG 0.03–0.15 (16%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).