Mon, Dec 9, 2013·CONSOL Energy Center, Pittsburgh
Columbus Blue Jackets 1, Pittsburgh Penguins 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 010 | 010 | 113 | 133 |
| PIT | 08 | 116 | 16 | 230 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 4:16PITEvgeni MalkinAssists: Jussi Jokinen, Deryk Engelland · Wrist, 0.15 xG0–1
- P3 8:52PITSidney CrosbyGWGAssists: Pascal Dupuis, Olli Maatta · Tip-in, 0.32 xG0–2
- P3 19:04CBJMatt CalvertAssists: Mark Letestu, Ryan Johansen · Wrist, 0.19 xG1–2
Penalties (10)
- P1 16:57CBJMatt Calvert: Hooking2 min
- P2 6:13CBJDavid Savard: Tripping2 min
- P3 3:01CBJCorey Tropp: Fighting5 min
- P3 3:01PITZach Sill: Fighting5 min
- P3 9:10CBJDerek MacKenzie: Roughing2 min
- P3 9:10PITSimon Despres: Roughing2 min
- P3 9:10CBJBrandon Dubinsky: Misconduct10 min
- P3 9:10CBJBrandon Dubinsky: Game misconduct10 min
- P3 9:10PITRobert Bortuzzo: Misconduct10 min
- P3 13:11PITChuck Kobasew: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Johansen won the faceoff against Crosby
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestMacKenzie – Letestu – Tropp5:01
xG 0.43–0.07 (87%)attempts 12–6goals 0–0
- Dubinsky – Calvert – Atkinson12:04
xG 0.49–0.30 (62%)attempts 18–12goals 0–0
- Comeau – Anisimov – Jenner11:02
xG 0.18–0.10 (64%)attempts 11–3goals 0–0
- Umberger – Foligno – Johansen10:09
xG 0.27–0.97 (22%)attempts 7–16goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestNikitin – Prout15:57
xG 0.73–0.30 (71%)attempts 27–12goals 0–0
- Savard – Murray14:33
xG 0.37–0.17 (69%)attempts 12–10goals 0–0
- Tyutin – Johnson15:52
xG 0.37–1.11 (25%)attempts 17–20goals 0–2
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestDupuis – Kunitz – Crosby12:50
xG 1.08–0.34 (76%)attempts 18–12goals 1–0
- Jokinen – Malkin – Megna7:02
xG 0.23–0.23 (51%)attempts 6–9goals 1–0
- Adams – Kobasew – Sill4:31
xG 0.04–0.17 (21%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
- Vitale – Conner – Sutter8:02
xG 0.01–0.24 (4%)attempts 2–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBortuzzo – Despres12:25
xG 0.36–0.19 (65%)attempts 9–12goals 0–0
- Engelland – Niskanen15:30
xG 0.52–0.38 (58%)attempts 13–14goals 1–0
- Letang – Maatta14:26
xG 0.66–0.66 (50%)attempts 15–21goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).