Mon, Dec 9, 2013·Honda Center, Anaheim
New York Islanders 2, Anaheim Ducks 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 113 | 112 | 012 | 237 |
| ANA | 17 | 312 | 112 | 531 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:17NYIJohn TavaresPPAssists: Thomas Vanek, Frans Nielsen · Wrist, 0.20 xG1–0
- P1 15:54ANASaku KoivuAssists: Daniel Winnik, Cam Fowler · Backhand, 0.17 xG1–1
- P2 4:17NYIThomas VanekAssists: John Tavares · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–1
- P2 12:41ANAAndrew CoglianoAssists: Daniel Winnik, Bryan Allen · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–2
- P2 19:27ANACam FowlerSHGWGAssists: Matt Beleskey · Backhand, 0.23 xG2–3
- P2 19:58ANACorey PerryAssists: Daniel Winnik, Ryan Getzlaf · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–4
- P3 7:40ANACorey PerryPPAssists: Nick Bonino, Cam Fowler · Tip-in, 0.31 xG2–5
Penalties (11)
- P1 6:01NYIMatt Martin: Fighting5 min
- P1 6:01ANATim Jackman: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P1 8:57ANAMark Fistric: Interference2 min
- P1 13:12ANADustin Penner: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 15:08ANASaku Koivu: Hooking2 min
- P2 17:43NYICal Clutterbuck: Roughing2 min
- P2 17:43ANADustin Penner: Roughing2 min
- P2 17:43ANACorey Perry: Interference2 min
- P3 6:18NYIAndrew MacDonald: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 15:05NYIMatt Carkner: Slashing2 min
- P3 15:05NYIMatt Carkner: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Getzlaf won the faceoff against Nielsen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestMcDonald – Martin – Cizikas9:02
xG 0.76–0.24 (76%)attempts 12–5goals 0–0
- Vanek – Okposo – Tavares13:24
xG 1.15–0.68 (63%)attempts 19–13goals 1–1
- Regin – Clutterbuck – Grabner10:47
xG 0.36–0.42 (46%)attempts 11–13goals 0–0
- Nielsen – Bailey – Nelson10:32
xG 0.09–0.29 (24%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHamonic – de Haan17:24
xG 0.66–0.52 (56%)attempts 15–11goals 1–2
- MacDonald – Hickey15:08
xG 0.93–0.82 (53%)attempts 20–16goals 0–1
- Carkner – Ness10:37
xG 0.67–0.61 (52%)attempts 17–12goals 0–0
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestSteckel – Jackman – Beleskey7:00
xG 0.44–0.00 (99%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Selanne – Bonino – Etem12:51
xG 0.69–0.41 (62%)attempts 14–15goals 0–0
- Getzlaf – Perry – Penner12:41
xG 0.08–0.23 (26%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
- Koivu – Winnik – Cogliano11:52
xG 0.66–1.02 (39%)attempts 14–17goals 2–1
Defence pairs
- bestLovejoy – Lindholm4:35
xG 0.56–0.00 (100%)attempts 9–1goals 0–0
- Fowler – Lindholm2:05
xG 0.18–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 1–0
- Allen – Vatanen11:54
xG 0.49–0.41 (54%)attempts 9–15goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).