Tue, Dec 10, 2013·Centre Bell, Montreal
Los Angeles Kings 6, Montréal Canadiens 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 212 | 413 | 05 | 630 |
| MTL | 017 | 03 | 011 | 031 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:03LAKJordan NolanGWGAssists: Anze Kopitar, Willie Mitchell · Wrist, 0.23 xG1–0
- P1 19:47LAKAnze KopitarAssists: Mike Richards · Snap, 0.06 xG2–0
- P2 1:45LAKAlec MartinezAssists: Tyler Toffoli, Kyle Clifford · Wrist, 0.40 xG3–0
- P2 5:28LAKTyler ToffoliAssists: Kyle Clifford, Mike Richards · Wrist, 0.40 xG4–0
- P2 8:14LAKJake MuzzinPPAssists: Jarret Stoll, Slava Voynov · Wrist, 0.17 xG5–0
- P2 18:28LAKJustin WilliamsAssists: Jarret Stoll, Alec Martinez · Backhand, 0.11 xG6–0
Penalties (8)
- P1 0:38LAKDrew Doughty: Tripping2 min
- P1 7:36MTLMichael Bournival: Hooking2 min
- P1 12:36LAKJustin Williams: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P1 16:38LAKRobyn Regehr: Interference2 min
- P2 7:44MTLAlex Galchenyuk: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 9:24LAKJordan Nolan: Roughing2 min
- P2 9:24MTLTravis Moen: Roughing2 min
- P3 8:24LAKKyle Clifford: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kopitar won the faceoff against Plekanec
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestRichards – Clifford – Toffoli10:01
xG 1.14–0.57 (67%)attempts 9–9goals 2–0
- Carter – Kopitar – King11:27
xG 0.52–0.34 (60%)attempts 15–8goals 0–0
- Fraser – Carcillo – Nolan8:48
xG 0.28–0.20 (59%)attempts 4–12goals 0–0
- Williams – Stoll – Brown10:22
xG 0.47–0.45 (51%)attempts 10–8goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestMitchell – Martinez13:49
xG 1.91–0.60 (76%)attempts 20–10goals 3–0
- Muzzin – Doughty16:07
xG 0.57–0.32 (64%)attempts 16–8goals 1–0
- Regehr – Voynov14:17
xG 0.13–0.64 (17%)attempts 6–23goals 0–0
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestGionta – Moen – Plekanec3:55
xG 0.47–0.02 (97%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Eller – Gallagher – Galchenyuk4:14
xG 0.51–0.11 (82%)attempts 10–1goals 0–0
- Prust – White – Bournival3:28
xG 0.10–0.01 (89%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
- Moen – Prust – White2:35
xG 0.00–0.01 (0%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBouillon – Diaz14:22
xG 0.45–0.35 (56%)attempts 15–12goals 0–0
- Markov – Subban14:26
xG 0.96–0.99 (49%)attempts 16–15goals 0–2
- Gorges – Emelin14:45
xG 0.38–0.83 (31%)attempts 8–17goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − LAK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).