Tue, Dec 10, 2013·BB&T Center, Sunrise
Detroit Red Wings 2, Florida Panthers 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 110 | 19 | 07 | 00 | 1 | 226 |
| FLA | 08 | 010 | 27 | 02 | 2 | 327 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:26DETTodd BertuzziPPAssists: Pavel Datsyuk, Johan Franzen · Wrist, 0.41 xG1–0
- P2 6:47DETPavel DatsyukAssists: Jonathan Ericsson, Johan Franzen · Tip-in, 0.06 xG2–0
- P3 5:00FLASean BergenheimAssists: Dmitry Kulikov, Aleksander Barkov · Tip-in, 0.06 xG2–1
- P3 14:38FLANick BjugstadAssists: Erik Gudbranson, Dylan Olsen · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. DET Daniel Alfredsson stopped
- 2. FLA Aleksander Barkov scored
- 3. DET Tomas Tatar scored
- 4. FLA Jonathan Huberdeau stopped
- 5. DET Gustav Nyquist stopped
- 6. FLA Brad Boyes scored
Penalties (7)
- P1 0:10FLAScottie Upshall: Delaying game face off violation2 min
- P1 9:19FLAAleksander Barkov: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 11:52FLASean Bergenheim: Tripping2 min
- P2 0:32DETStephen Weiss: Hooking2 min
- P2 7:37DETTomas Tatar: Holding2 min
- P3 8:06FLAErik Gudbranson: Tripping2 min
- P3 17:04DETTodd Bertuzzi: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bjugstad won the faceoff against Weiss
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestAndersson – Nyquist – Tatar8:15
xG 0.82–0.07 (92%)attempts 11–1goals 0–0
- Cleary – Miller – Emmerton6:36
xG 0.14–0.11 (57%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Bertuzzi – Datsyuk – Franzen12:55
xG 0.27–0.76 (26%)attempts 12–12goals 1–1
- Alfredsson – Weiss – Abdelkader12:35
xG 0.02–0.53 (4%)attempts 5–16goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestKindl – Smith2:38
xG 0.24–0.06 (80%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Kindl – Lashoff8:32
xG 0.17–0.07 (72%)attempts 4–9goals 0–0
- Kronwall – Ericsson14:26
xG 0.62–0.64 (49%)attempts 15–12goals 1–1
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestUpshall – Bjugstad – Huberdeau11:44
xG 0.87–0.25 (78%)attempts 13–8goals 1–0
- Boyes – Matthias – Winchester7:42
xG 0.36–0.06 (87%)attempts 11–4goals 0–0
- Bergenheim – Hayes – Barkov10:59
xG 0.16–0.15 (52%)attempts 9–4goals 1–0
- Boyes – Kopecky – Goc2:28
xG 0.00–0.09 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestOlsen – Gudbranson13:26
xG 0.77–0.28 (73%)attempts 12–11goals 1–1
- Weaver – Kulikov10:03
xG 0.50–0.38 (57%)attempts 11–4goals 1–0
- Gilbert – Kulikov2:46
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).