Tue, Dec 10, 2013·MTS Centre, Winnipeg
St. Louis Blues 2, Winnipeg Jets 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 02 | 18 | 110 | 220 |
| WPG | 08 | 05 | 18 | 121 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 4:44STLAlexander SteenAssists: T.J. Oshie, David Backes · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–0
- P3 3:00WPGBryan LittlePPAssists: Andrew Ladd, Olli Jokinen · Snap, 0.11 xG1–1
- P3 16:58STLKevin ShattenkirkPPGWGAssists: Derek Roy · Slap, 0.06 xG2–1
Penalties (9)
- P1 14:49STLDavid Backes: Interference2 min
- P2 14:35WPGBlake Wheeler: Interference2 min
- P3 1:47STLVladimir Sobotka: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 4:15WPGBlake Wheeler: Slashing2 min
- P3 6:28STLDavid Backes: Boarding2 min
- P3 13:02STLChris Stewart: High sticking2 min
- P3 16:34WPGDustin Byfuglien: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 0:00STLAlexander Steen: Slashing2 min
- P3 0:00WPGBryan Little: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backes won the faceoff against Little
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestMorrow – Lapierre – Cracknell6:31
xG 0.30–0.10 (76%)attempts 2–7goals 0–0
- Sobotka – Tarasenko – Schwartz5:12
xG 0.24–0.12 (67%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Steen – Backes – Oshie13:57
xG 0.17–0.06 (75%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
- Roy – Berglund – Tarasenko4:56
xG 0.09–0.00 (99%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJackman – Shattenkirk12:50
xG 0.40–0.01 (97%)attempts 17–4goals 0–0
- Bouwmeester – Pietrangelo14:52
xG 0.44–0.22 (67%)attempts 13–12goals 0–0
- Polak – Cole9:20
xG 0.14–0.11 (55%)attempts 8–6goals 1–0
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- Albert – Peluso – Wright5:47
xG 0.08–0.12 (41%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Ladd – Wheeler – Little11:59
xG 0.16–0.30 (34%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Frolik – Halischuk – Scheifele10:06
xG 0.08–0.25 (25%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
- Jokinen – Thorburn – Setoguchi12:36
xG 0.08–0.31 (20%)attempts 3–14goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestClitsome – Trouba10:18
xG 0.16–0.03 (83%)attempts 12–6goals 0–0
- Stuart – Trouba2:19
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Enstrom – Byfuglien17:48
xG 0.07–0.39 (15%)attempts 5–14goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).