Tue, Dec 10, 2013·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Chicago Blackhawks 6, Dallas Stars 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 214 | 414 | 05 | 633 |
| DAL | 04 | 110 | 115 | 229 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:03CHIMichael KostkaAssists: Marcus Kruger, Ben Smith · Deflected, 0.01 xG1–0
- P1 12:05CHIPatrick KaneAssists: Brent Seabrook · Backhand, 0.14 xG2–0
- P2 2:46CHIBrandon SaadGWGAssists: Andrew Shaw, Michael Kostka · Deflected, 0.31 xG3–0
- P2 8:20CHIPatrick SharpPPAssists: Patrick Kane, Duncan Keith · Slap, 0.05 xG4–0
- P2 11:08CHIPatrick SharpAssists: Duncan Keith, Jonathan Toews · Backhand, 0.16 xG5–0
- P2 13:36DALAntoine RousselAssists: Ryan Garbutt, Dustin Jeffrey · Wrist, 0.11 xG5–1
- P2 19:15CHIBrandon SaadAssists: Brent Seabrook, Patrick Kane · Wrist, 0.05 xG6–1
- P3 19:41DALAntoine RousselAssists: Sergei Gonchar, Ryan Garbutt · Tip-in, 0.12 xG6–2
Penalties (15)
- P1 2:42CHIJohnny Oduya: Interference2 min
- P1 5:23DALAntoine Roussel: Tripping2 min
- P1 8:15DALJordie Benn: Delaying game2 min
- P1 8:20DALBrenden Dillon: Slashing2 min
- P2 7:29DALRyan Garbutt: Illegal check to head2 min · PPG
- P2 17:43CHIPatrick Sharp: Hooking2 min
- P2 18:36DALErik Cole: Interference2 min
- P3 9:12CHIJeremy Morin: Delaying game2 min
- P3 14:36CHIJeremy Morin: Hooking2 min
- P3 16:54CHIPatrick Sharp: Hooking2 min
- P3 0:00CHIJeremy Morin: Roughing2 min
- P3 0:00CHIJeremy Morin: Misconduct10 min
- P3 0:00DALAntoine Roussel: Cross checking2 min
- P3 0:00DALAntoine Roussel: Roughing2 min
- P3 0:00DALAntoine Roussel: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Seguin won the faceoff against Toews
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestMorin – Shaw – Saad6:43
xG 1.04–0.25 (80%)attempts 13–4goals 1–1
- Smith – Kruger – Bollig8:55
xG 0.28–0.11 (73%)attempts 11–4goals 1–0
- Handzus – Versteeg – Kane9:04
xG 0.44–0.57 (44%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
- Hossa – Sharp – Toews9:31
xG 0.36–0.52 (41%)attempts 7–13goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestKeith – Seabrook12:44
xG 0.99–0.49 (67%)attempts 15–12goals 2–0
- Oduya – Hjalmarsson14:40
xG 0.58–0.51 (53%)attempts 11–11goals 0–0
- Kostka – Leddy12:28
xG 0.68–0.96 (41%)attempts 14–15goals 2–2
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestCole – Horcoff – Peverley5:12
xG 0.14–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Benn – Seguin – Nichushkin9:13
xG 0.27–0.21 (56%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Jeffrey – Roussel – Garbutt5:41
xG 0.35–0.40 (47%)attempts 7–7goals 2–0
- Whitney – Chiasson – Eakin7:18
xG 0.12–0.17 (40%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestConnauton – Oleksiak11:10
xG 0.74–0.24 (76%)attempts 14–8goals 0–1
- Gonchar – Benn10:27
xG 0.24–0.21 (53%)attempts 9–8goals 1–0
- Benn – Oleksiak2:09
xG 0.07–0.10 (41%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).