Tue, Dec 10, 2013·Pepsi Center, Denver
Phoenix Coyotes 3, Colorado Avalanche 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Phoenix Coyotes win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHX | 09 | 311 | 05 | 325 |
| COL | 011 | 17 | 012 | 130 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 8:31PHXAntoine VermettePPAssists: Keith Yandle, Mike Ribeiro · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–0
- P2 12:06PHXJordan SzwarzGWGAssists: Jeff Halpern, Paul Bissonnette · Wrist, 0.32 xG2–0
- P2 14:28COLPatrick BordeleauAssists: Cody McLeod, Cory Sarich · Deflected, 0.04 xG2–1
- P2 15:33PHXAntoine VermetteAssists: Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Mikkel Boedker · Wrist, 0.13 xG3–1
Penalties (4)
- P2 3:19PHXMichael Stone: Interference2 min
- P2 7:49COLNick Holden: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 0:39PHXAntoine Vermette: Hooking2 min
- P3 9:08COLMatt Duchene: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Vermette won the faceoff against MacKinnon
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Phoenix Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestHalpern – Bissonnette – Szwarz2:43
xG 0.50–0.09 (85%)attempts 3–2goals 1–0
- Ribeiro – Moss – Klinkhammer9:32
xG 0.44–0.36 (55%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
- Vrbata – Hanzal – Kennedy11:11
xG 0.24–0.30 (45%)attempts 14–6goals 0–0
- Vermette – Chipchura – Boedker12:01
xG 0.26–0.41 (38%)attempts 5–11goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestYandle – Murphy20:56
xG 0.86–0.60 (59%)attempts 17–15goals 0–0
- Schlemko – Stone10:33
xG 0.57–0.35 (62%)attempts 11–8goals 1–1
- Michalek – Ekman-Larsson15:29
xG 0.61–0.43 (59%)attempts 13–15goals 1–0
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestO'Reilly – Landeskog – MacKinnon11:21
xG 0.35–0.14 (72%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Parenteau – McGinn – Duchene2:45
xG 0.10–0.01 (89%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Talbot – Mitchell – Stastny2:33
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Bordeleau – McLeod – Cliche4:02
xG 0.04–0.01 (80%)attempts 1–3goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestJohnson – Holden3:01
xG 0.30–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Benoit – Barrie3:49
xG 0.12–0.01 (92%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Benoit – Johnson3:11
xG 0.04–0.03 (63%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it PHX. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Phoenix Coyotes win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − PHX), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).