Tue, Dec 10, 2013·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Boston Bruins 2, Calgary Flames 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 05 | 04 | 215 | 224 |
| CGY | 011 | 111 | 05 | 127 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 5:17CGYJiri HudlerAssists: Sven Baertschi, Mark Giordano · Wrist, 0.02 xG0–1
- P3 13:49BOSDavid KrejciPPAssists: Torey Krug, Zdeno Chara · Deflected, 0.11 xG1–1
- P3 15:27BOSReilly SmithGWGAssists: Ryan Spooner, Carl Soderberg · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–1
Penalties (5)
- P1 4:42CGYBlair Jones: Holding2 min
- P1 14:39BOSMatt Bartkowski: Holding2 min
- P2 19:17BOSMatt Fraser: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 4:03CGYShane O'Brien: Holding2 min
- P3 12:37CGYJoe Colborne: Delaying game2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stajan won the faceoff against Krejci
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestIginla – Krejci – Lucic15:21
xG 0.67–0.41 (62%)attempts 19–9goals 0–0
- Bergeron – Marchand – Smith8:46
xG 0.17–0.15 (53%)attempts 8–6goals 0–1
- Campbell – Johnson – Caron6:02
xG 0.28–0.34 (45%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Soderberg – Fraser – Spooner9:00
xG 0.16–0.25 (39%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBoychuk – Bartkowski10:39
xG 0.54–0.32 (63%)attempts 14–9goals 0–0
- Seidenberg – Krug11:46
xG 0.18–0.12 (60%)attempts 9–5goals 0–1
- Chara – Boychuk3:55
xG 0.06–0.03 (68%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestCammalleri – Stajan – Stempniak11:28
xG 0.31–0.02 (94%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
- Hudler – Colborne – Baertschi10:37
xG 0.28–0.27 (51%)attempts 9–10goals 1–1
- Jones – Backlund – Bouma8:35
xG 0.21–0.27 (44%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- McGrattan – Jones – Byron4:49
xG 0.04–0.26 (12%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRussell – Brodie17:10
xG 0.62–0.50 (55%)attempts 14–17goals 0–1
- O'Brien – Butler12:23
xG 0.38–0.30 (56%)attempts 8–16goals 0–0
- Giordano – Smid12:53
xG 0.23–0.45 (33%)attempts 8–9goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).