Tue, Dec 10, 2013·SAP Center at San Jose, San Jose
New York Islanders 3, San Jose Sharks 2 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 83% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 03 | 011 | 210 | 04 | 2 | 328 |
| SJS | 018 | 211 | 016 | 03 | 1 | 248 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 5:26SJSPatrick MarleauPPAssists: Dan Boyle, Logan Couture · Wrist, 0.30 xG0–1
- P2 15:24SJSJoe PavelskiAssists: Dan Boyle, Patrick Marleau · Wrist, 0.25 xG0–2
- P3 0:51NYIThomas VanekAssists: Kyle Okposo, John Tavares · Wrist, 0.37 xG1–2
- P3 18:23NYIKyle OkposoAssists: John Tavares · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. SJS Joe Pavelski stopped
- 2. NYI Thomas Vanek scored
- 3. SJS Logan Couture scored
- 4. NYI Frans Nielsen stopped
- 5. SJS Dan Boyle stopped
- 6. NYI John Tavares stopped
- 7. SJS Tomas Hertl stopped
- 8. NYI Kyle Okposo scored
Penalties (5)
- P1 7:23NYIEric Boulton: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 9:15NYITravis Hamonic: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 17:32NYITravis Hamonic: Hooking2 min
- P2 5:16NYIMatt Carkner: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P2 8:34SJSTommy Wingels: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Tavares won the faceoff against Couture
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- McDonald – Bailey – Nelson8:30
xG 0.25–0.25 (50%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
- Vanek – Okposo – Tavares14:52
xG 0.89–1.01 (47%)attempts 10–15goals 1–0
- Nielsen – Clutterbuck – Grabner10:35
xG 0.44–0.69 (39%)attempts 12–10goals 0–0
- Boulton – Martin – Cizikas5:19
xG 0.28–0.56 (33%)attempts 4–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestNess – Hamonic2:30
xG 0.20–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Hamonic – de Haan17:54
xG 1.09–1.20 (48%)attempts 23–22goals 1–0
- Carkner – Ness7:13
xG 0.27–0.39 (41%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestMarleau – Pavelski – Couture12:14
xG 1.79–0.27 (87%)attempts 27–5goals 1–0
- Havlat – Kennedy – Desjardins10:05
xG 0.72–0.32 (69%)attempts 14–9goals 0–0
- Wingels – Hamilton – Nieto9:13
xG 0.05–0.53 (8%)attempts 7–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestVlasic – Braun16:19
xG 1.71–1.11 (61%)attempts 27–15goals 0–1
- Boyle – Irwin8:32
xG 0.69–0.20 (77%)attempts 12–7goals 1–0
- Stuart – Demers7:26
xG 0.16–0.44 (27%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 83% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).