Wed, Dec 11, 2013·Air Canada Centre, Toronto
Los Angeles Kings 3, Toronto Maple Leafs 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 82% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 18 | 08 | 27 | 323 |
| TOR | 011 | 110 | 018 | 139 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:30LAKDrew DoughtyPPAssists: Mike Richards, Jeff Carter · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–0
- P2 14:30TORCody FransonPPAssists: Phil Kessel, Jake Gardiner · Snap, 0.06 xG1–1
- P3 9:40LAKJeff CarterGWGAssists: Slava Voynov, Jordan Nolan · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–1
- P3 18:01LAKKyle CliffordAssists: Tyler Toffoli, Mike Richards · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–1
Penalties (11)
- P1 8:59TORPeter Holland: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 7:59LAKJarret Stoll: Slashing2 min
- P2 10:48TORFrazer McLaren: Fighting5 min
- P2 10:48LAKJordan Nolan: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P2 13:07LAKWillie Mitchell: Interference2 min
- P2 14:03LAKDrew Doughty: Slashing2 min
- P2 16:13TORJoffrey Lupul: Slashing2 min
- P2 16:13LAKSlava Voynov: Roughing2 min
- P2 16:13TORJoffrey Lupul: Roughing2 min
- P2 16:13LAKSlava Voynov: High sticking2 min
- P3 19:47TORJames van Riemsdyk: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Holland won the faceoff against Kopitar
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestWilliams – Stoll – Brown12:26
xG 0.52–0.36 (59%)attempts 13–13goals 0–0
- Fraser – Carcillo – Nolan5:09
xG 0.05–0.11 (31%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Carter – Kopitar – King11:34
xG 0.62–1.00 (38%)attempts 13–16goals 0–0
- Richards – Clifford – Toffoli11:07
xG 0.11–0.70 (14%)attempts 9–12goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestMitchell – Doughty3:56
xG 0.64–0.03 (95%)attempts 9–2goals 1–0
- Mitchell – Martinez10:08
xG 0.06–0.26 (18%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
- Muzzin – Doughty15:47
xG 0.47–1.08 (30%)attempts 15–18goals 0–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestKessel – van Riemsdyk – Kadri13:58
xG 1.24–0.27 (82%)attempts 17–16goals 0–1
- Clarkson – Raymond – Smith12:35
xG 0.77–0.15 (84%)attempts 16–8goals 0–1
- McClement – McLaren – D'Amigo3:17
xG 0.00–0.03 (0%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Lupul – Kulemin – Holland11:18
xG 0.60–0.72 (46%)attempts 14–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRanger – Fraser13:39
xG 1.14–0.36 (76%)attempts 18–11goals 0–1
- Gardiner – Rielly17:48
xG 0.78–0.12 (87%)attempts 19–12goals 0–0
- Franson – Gunnarsson14:32
xG 1.00–0.66 (60%)attempts 17–16goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 82% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − LAK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).