Wed, Dec 11, 2013·United Center, Chicago
Philadelphia Flyers 2, Chicago Blackhawks 7
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 110 | 17 | 013 | 230 |
| CHI | 06 | 511 | 26 | 723 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:31PHIJakub VoracekPPAssists: Kimmo Timonen, Claude Giroux · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–0
- P2 0:43CHIDuncan KeithPPAssists: Patrick Sharp, Patrick Kane · Slap, 0.02 xG1–1
- P2 1:22CHIAndrew ShawAssists: Brandon Bollig, Johnny Oduya · Wrap-around, 0.11 xG1–2
- P2 5:27CHIMichal HandzusSHGWGAssists: Marcus Kruger · Tip-in, 0.21 xG1–3
- P2 6:11PHISteve DowniePPAssists: Brayden Schenn, Mark Streit · Tip-in, 0.42 xG2–3
- P2 9:44CHIKris VersteegAssists: Brandon Saad, Marian Hossa · Wrist, 0.17 xG2–4
- P2 14:15CHIJonathan ToewsAssists: Patrick Sharp, Marian Hossa · Deflected, 0.14 xG2–5
- P3 1:05CHIBrent SeabrookAssists: Michal Handzus, Kris Versteeg · Slap, 0.02 xG2–6
- P3 9:33CHIPatrick SharpPPAssists: Patrick Kane, Marian Hossa · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–7
Penalties (18)
- P1 1:47CHISheldon Brookbank: Fighting5 min
- P1 1:47PHIWayne Simmonds: Fighting5 min
- P1 12:08CHIMarcus Kruger: Holding the stick2 min · PPG
- P1 13:41CHIBrandon Bollig: High sticking2 min
- P1 19:34PHIKimmo Timonen: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 4:27CHIBrandon Saad: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 7:18PHIZac Rinaldo: Tripping2 min
- P2 14:15PHIScott Hartnell: Roughing2 min
- P3 2:12CHIJeremy Morin: Boarding2 min
- P3 6:32PHIScott Hartnell: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 9:13PHILuke Schenn: Elbowing2 min · PPG
- P3 9:13PHIJay Rosehill: Roughing2 min
- P3 10:09PHIAndrej Meszaros: Cross checking2 min
- P3 15:29PHIJay Rosehill: Misconduct10 min
- P3 15:29CHIBrandon Bollig: Misconduct10 min
- P3 17:07PHIBraydon Coburn: Misconduct10 min
- P3 17:07CHIJeremy Morin: Roughing2 min
- P3 17:07CHIJeremy Morin: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Toews won the faceoff against Giroux
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestSimmonds – Schenn – Raffl6:34
xG 0.18–0.01 (95%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Hartnell – Giroux – Voracek10:14
xG 0.49–0.37 (57%)attempts 12–5goals 0–2
- Hall – Rosehill – Rinaldo3:37
xG 0.09–0.03 (77%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Downie – Read – Couturier9:27
xG 0.25–0.50 (33%)attempts 8–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestStreit – Meszaros3:39
xG 0.17–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Meszaros – Schenn8:30
xG 0.24–0.21 (53%)attempts 8–6goals 0–1
- Timonen – Coburn9:45
xG 0.42–0.40 (51%)attempts 14–8goals 0–0
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestHossa – Sharp – Toews8:07
xG 0.52–0.01 (97%)attempts 6–6goals 1–0
- Smith – Kruger – Bollig6:45
xG 0.15–0.13 (54%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
- Handzus – Versteeg – Kane7:27
xG 0.10–0.10 (51%)attempts 4–4goals 1–0
- Morin – Shaw – Saad7:11
xG 0.14–0.16 (46%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestOduya – Hjalmarsson11:21
xG 0.33–0.05 (86%)attempts 6–6goals 2–0
- Seabrook – Leddy2:51
xG 0.28–0.23 (55%)attempts 6–4goals 1–0
- Brookbank – Leddy10:57
xG 0.21–0.31 (41%)attempts 7–13goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).