Thu, Dec 12, 2013·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Montréal Canadiens 1, Philadelphia Flyers 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 85% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 04 | 09 | 18 | 121 |
| PHI | 19 | 19 | 09 | 227 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:57PHIMichael RafflAssists: Jakub Voracek, Claude Giroux · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–1
- P2 9:43PHIClaude GirouxGWGAssists: Jakub Voracek, Brayden Schenn · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–2
- P3 19:04MTLAlex GalchenyukUnassisted · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–2
Penalties (10)
- P1 5:04PHISean Couturier: High sticking2 min
- P1 15:36MTLAlexei Emelin: Interference2 min
- P2 6:01MTLP.K. Subban: Elbowing2 min
- P2 16:15MTLAlexei Emelin: Elbowing5 min
- P2 16:15MTLAlexei Emelin: Game misconduct10 min
- P3 0:00MTLBrendan Gallagher: Roughing2 min
- P3 0:00MTLBrendan Gallagher: Roughing2 min
- P3 0:00PHISteve Mason: High sticking2 min
- P3 0:00PHISteve Mason: Roughing2 min
- P3 0:00MTLBrian Gionta: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Desharnais won the faceoff against Giroux
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestEller – Gallagher – Galchenyuk7:49
xG 0.25–0.00 (100%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Brière – Desharnais – Pacioretty12:06
xG 0.54–0.35 (61%)attempts 15–14goals 0–0
- Pacioretty – Eller – Gallagher2:05
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–0goals 0–0
- Parros – Moen – White3:30
xG 0.00–0.07 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMarkov – Subban18:23
xG 0.69–0.24 (74%)attempts 16–8goals 0–0
- Gorges – Diaz3:13
xG 0.04–0.06 (44%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Gorges – Emelin8:56
xG 0.09–0.14 (40%)attempts 6–12goals 0–1
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestGiroux – Voracek – Raffl10:06
xG 0.48–0.27 (64%)attempts 14–10goals 1–0
- Hall – VandeVelde – Rinaldo4:34
xG 0.07–0.04 (64%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Downie – Read – Couturier12:03
xG 0.11–0.19 (36%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
- Hartnell – Simmonds – Schenn9:14
xG 0.30–0.45 (40%)attempts 16–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSchenn – Gustafsson13:22
xG 0.35–0.11 (76%)attempts 16–7goals 1–0
- Timonen – Coburn12:12
xG 0.34–0.19 (63%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
- Coburn – Grossmann3:44
xG 0.06–0.02 (78%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 85% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).