Thu, Dec 12, 2013·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Buffalo Sabres 1, Ottawa Senators 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 111 | 013 | 017 | 141 |
| OTT | 113 | 17 | 012 | 232 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:22OTTBobby RyanAssists: Kyle Turris, Cory Conacher · Deflected, 0.08 xG0–1
- P1 17:39BUFTyler EnnisPPAssists: Drew Stafford, Jamie McBain · Wrap-around, 0.08 xG1–1
- P2 6:39OTTZack SmithGWGAssists: Kyle Turris, Bobby Ryan · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–2
Penalties (10)
- P1 2:10BUFJohn Scott: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P1 17:01OTTZack Smith: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 0:47OTTErik Karlsson: Holding2 min
- P2 4:30BUFJohn Scott: Tripping2 min
- P2 11:08OTTEric Gryba: Fighting5 min
- P2 11:08BUFCody McCormick: Fighting5 min
- P2 12:25OTTErik Condra: High sticking2 min
- P3 11:31OTTEric Gryba: Slashing2 min
- P3 15:02BUFMark Pysyk: Interference2 min
- P3 17:57OTTMilan Michalek: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Ennis won the faceoff against Pageau
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestD'Agostini – Leino – Adam11:30
xG 0.53–0.13 (80%)attempts 13–5goals 0–0
- Ott – Stafford – Foligno10:40
xG 0.33–0.22 (60%)attempts 8–16goals 0–0
- McCormick – Scott – Flynn2:18
xG 0.05–0.17 (21%)attempts 5–4goals 0–1
- Moulson – Ennis – Girgensons13:18
xG 0.28–0.56 (34%)attempts 9–16goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestTallinder – Myers14:59
xG 0.56–0.18 (76%)attempts 18–12goals 0–1
- Weber – Pysyk12:12
xG 0.32–0.26 (55%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Ehrhoff – McBain13:44
xG 0.53–0.74 (42%)attempts 15–25goals 0–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestRyan – Turris – Conacher7:36
xG 0.57–0.10 (85%)attempts 9–5goals 1–0
- Spezza – MacArthur – Zibanejad10:49
xG 0.37–0.13 (74%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
- Neil – Greening – Pageau8:10
xG 0.10–0.14 (43%)attempts 13–5goals 0–0
- Michalek – Condra – Smith10:05
xG 0.14–0.75 (16%)attempts 8–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPhillips – Ceci13:38
xG 0.67–0.34 (66%)attempts 13–13goals 1–0
- Corvo – Karlsson15:59
xG 0.52–0.49 (51%)attempts 20–11goals 0–0
- Gryba – Wiercioch9:28
xG 0.10–0.47 (17%)attempts 10–15goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).