Thu, Dec 12, 2013·MTS Centre, Winnipeg
Colorado Avalanche 4, Winnipeg Jets 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 14 | 214 | 05 | 03 | 2 | 426 |
| WPG | 214 | 04 | 115 | 05 | 0 | 338 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:24WPGBlake WheelerAssists: Toby Enstrom, Bryan Little · Deflected, 0.35 xG0–1
- P1 5:25WPGMichael FrolikPPAssists: Jacob Trouba, Grant Clitsome · Deflected, 0.19 xG0–2
- P1 15:08COLMatt DucheneAssists: Ryan O'Reilly, Nate Guenin · Snap, 0.20 xG1–2
- P2 14:47COLRyan O'ReillyAssists: Matt Duchene, Cory Sarich · Wrist, 0.15 xG2–2
- P2 19:57COLMatt DucheneAssists: Nathan MacKinnon · Backhand, 0.22 xG3–2
- P3 10:00WPGBlake WheelerPPAssists: Mark Scheifele, Grant Clitsome · Wrist, 0.23 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. WPG Devin Setoguchi stopped
- 2. COL Matt Duchene scored
- 3. WPG Andrew Ladd stopped
- 4. COL PA Parenteau scored
Penalties (8)
- P1 2:24COLErik Johnson: Holding2 min
- P1 3:47COLNate Guenin: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P1 6:47COLNathan MacKinnon: Abusive language2 min
- P2 4:33WPGChris Thorburn: High sticking2 min
- P2 9:56WPGOlli Jokinen: Tripping2 min
- P2 12:07COLGabriel Landeskog: Tripping2 min
- P3 8:02COLCory Sarich: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 14:10COLGabriel Landeskog: Boarding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Little won the faceoff against Duchene
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestParenteau – Stastny – Landeskog12:43
xG 0.35–0.02 (94%)attempts 13–4goals 0–0
- O'Reilly – Duchene – MacKinnon10:38
xG 0.96–0.92 (51%)attempts 11–14goals 3–1
- Bordeleau – McLeod – Cliche3:13
xG 0.00–0.13 (0%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Talbot – Mitchell – McGinn9:56
xG 0.58–0.91 (39%)attempts 11–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHolden – Barrie11:11
xG 0.52–0.23 (69%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
- Sarich – Benoit12:04
xG 0.62–0.66 (48%)attempts 12–11goals 1–0
- Johnson – Barrie3:56
xG 0.08–0.27 (24%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestLadd – Wheeler – Little11:06
xG 1.05–0.33 (76%)attempts 17–8goals 1–1
- Frolik – Halischuk – Scheifele7:55
xG 0.53–0.37 (59%)attempts 8–12goals 0–0
- Albert – Peluso – Wright3:57
xG 0.13–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Jokinen – Thorburn – Setoguchi9:27
xG 0.47–0.61 (43%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEnstrom – Byfuglien15:15
xG 1.33–0.26 (84%)attempts 20–9goals 1–1
- Clitsome – Ellerby4:38
xG 0.49–0.10 (82%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Stuart – Ellerby5:16
xG 0.02–0.33 (6%)attempts 2–9goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).