Thu, Dec 12, 2013·Jobing.com Arena, Glendale
New York Islanders 3, Phoenix Coyotes 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Phoenix Coyotes win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 16 | 211 | 07 | 324 |
| PHX | 117 | 411 | 19 | 637 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:06NYIEric BoultonAssists: Andrew MacDonald, Brian Strait · Tip-in, 0.11 xG1–0
- P1 14:34PHXKeith YandlePPAssists: Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Radim Vrbata · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–1
- P2 2:34PHXRob KlinkhammerAssists: Mike Ribeiro, Connor Murphy · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–2
- P2 4:31PHXMikkel BoedkerAssists: Antoine Vermette, Keith Yandle · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–3
- P2 6:15PHXMike RibeiroGWGAssists: Rob Klinkhammer · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–4
- P2 11:42NYIJohn TavaresAssists: Thomas Vanek, Aaron Ness · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–4
- P2 13:05NYIKyle OkposoAssists: Brian Strait, Frans Nielsen · Tip-in, 0.14 xG3–4
- P2 18:59PHXMikkel BoedkerAssists: Mike Ribeiro · Wrist, 0.04 xG3–5
- P3 14:13PHXRob KlinkhammerUnassisted · Wrist, 0.11 xG3–6
Penalties (12)
- P1 4:26NYIBrian Strait: Tripping2 min
- P1 13:25NYIThomas Vanek: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 13:18PHXMartin Hanzal: Tripping2 min
- P2 17:27NYIMichael Grabner: Roughing2 min
- P2 17:27PHXMichael Stone: Holding2 min
- P3 3:43PHXOliver Ekman-Larsson: High sticking2 min
- P3 9:58NYIThomas Hickey: High sticking2 min
- P3 11:20PHXMichael Stone: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 18:38NYIMatt Martin: Slashing2 min
- P3 18:38NYIMatt Martin: Cross checking2 min
- P3 18:38PHXKeith Yandle: Cross checking2 min
- P3 18:38NYIKyle Okposo: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Nielsen won the faceoff against Vermette
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestVanek – Clutterbuck – Tavares2:47
xG 0.34–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 1–0
- Vanek – Okposo – Tavares8:45
xG 0.36–0.14 (73%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Nielsen – Okposo – Grabner4:16
xG 0.22–0.04 (84%)attempts 7–1goals 1–0
- Nielsen – Clutterbuck – Grabner6:55
xG 0.14–0.10 (58%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHamonic – de Haan10:53
xG 0.35–0.19 (64%)attempts 7–10goals 1–0
- Strait – Hamonic2:03
xG 0.15–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 1–0
- MacDonald – de Haan4:07
xG 0.15–0.00 (99%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
Phoenix Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestVrbata – Hanzal – Kennedy12:20
xG 0.59–0.27 (68%)attempts 13–15goals 0–0
- Ribeiro – Moss – Klinkhammer8:26
xG 0.58–0.39 (60%)attempts 13–8goals 3–1
- Halpern – Bissonnette – Szwarz5:22
xG 0.10–0.21 (32%)attempts 5–3goals 0–1
- Vermette – Chipchura – Boedker12:18
xG 0.17–0.48 (26%)attempts 7–12goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestYandle – Murphy18:36
xG 0.92–0.63 (59%)attempts 21–20goals 3–1
- Schlemko – Stone12:02
xG 0.26–0.31 (45%)attempts 12–9goals 0–1
- Michalek – Ekman-Larsson11:32
xG 0.14–0.60 (19%)attempts 7–11goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHX's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHX is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Phoenix Coyotes win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHX − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).