Thu, Dec 12, 2013·Rexall Place, Edmonton
Boston Bruins 4, Edmonton Oilers 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 318 | 010 | 13 | 431 |
| EDM | 014 | 214 | 013 | 241 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:25BOSDennis SeidenbergUnassisted · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–0
- P1 16:11BOSJarome IginlaAssists: Dennis Seidenberg, David Krejci · Slap, 0.03 xG2–0
- P1 18:17BOSBrad MarchandSHGWGAssists: Patrice Bergeron · Snap, 0.15 xG3–0
- P2 3:25EDMDavid PerronAssists: Justin Schultz, Nick Schultz · Wrist, 0.03 xG3–1
- P2 17:27EDMDavid PerronAssists: Jordan Eberle, Jeff Petry · Wrap-around, 0.11 xG3–2
- P3 19:16BOSJarome IginlaENAssists: David Krejci, Kevan Miller · Wrist, 0.55 xG4–2
Penalties (6)
- P1 13:08EDMPhilip Larsen: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 17:35BOSJordan Caron: Slashing2 min
- P2 4:18EDMLuke Gazdic: Fighting5 min
- P2 4:18BOSMilan Lucic: Fighting5 min
- P3 8:54BOSBrad Marchand: Interference2 min
- P3 16:52BOSDennis Seidenberg: Closing hand on puck2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bergeron won the faceoff against Gagner
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- Campbell – Johnson – Caron9:10
xG 0.34–0.32 (51%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Bergeron – Marchand – Smith13:25
xG 0.63–0.68 (48%)attempts 10–15goals 0–1
- Iginla – Krejci – Lucic10:52
xG 0.28–0.40 (41%)attempts 10–13goals 2–0
- Soderberg – Fraser – Spooner6:50
xG 0.07–0.50 (13%)attempts 5–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSeidenberg – Krug10:46
xG 0.71–0.59 (55%)attempts 15–13goals 2–1
- Seidenberg – Boychuk2:15
xG 0.08–0.04 (68%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Seidenberg – Miller3:41
xG 0.00–0.09 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–1
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestPerron – Eberle – Nugent-Hopkins15:22
xG 0.90–0.18 (83%)attempts 22–10goals 1–0
- Joensuu – Gagner – Yakupov6:58
xG 0.35–0.10 (77%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
- Hemsky – Hall – Arcobello8:19
xG 0.23–0.03 (87%)attempts 11–3goals 0–0
- Gagner – Hall – Yakupov4:39
xG 0.20–0.13 (60%)attempts 3–4goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestPetry – Belov16:39
xG 0.99–0.25 (80%)attempts 24–11goals 1–0
- Ference – Larsen15:37
xG 0.69–0.61 (53%)attempts 19–16goals 1–0
- Schultz – Schultz15:02
xG 0.47–0.40 (54%)attempts 12–10goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).