Thu, Dec 12, 2013·SAP Center at San Jose, San Jose
Minnesota Wild 1, San Jose Sharks 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 89% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 09 | 010 | 111 | 130 |
| SJS | 216 | 116 | 07 | 339 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:54SJSJoe PavelskiPPAssists: Dan Boyle, Joe Thornton · Slap, 0.02 xG0–1
- P1 14:43SJSTomas HertlPPGWGAssists: Tommy Wingels · Snap, 0.16 xG0–2
- P2 3:42SJSJoe PavelskiPPAssists: Matt Irwin, Joe Thornton · Wrist, 0.49 xG0–3
- P3 12:36MINJonas BrodinAssists: Justin Fontaine, Ryan Suter · Deflected, 0.07 xG1–3
Penalties (11)
- P1 5:14MINJustin Fontaine: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P1 7:05MINZenon Konopka: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P1 7:05SJSAndrew Desjardins: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P1 9:10MINRyan Suter: Interference2 min
- P1 12:16MINJustin Fontaine: Holding2 min
- P1 12:47MINMatt Cooke: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 15:23SJSJason Demers: Cross checking2 min
- P2 2:11MINZenon Konopka: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
- P2 15:07SJSTomas Hertl: Holding2 min
- P3 1:37MINClayton Stoner: Holding2 min
- P3 4:19SJSTyler Kennedy: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Couture won the faceoff against Koivu
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestKoivu – Pominville – Parise12:46
xG 0.57–0.28 (66%)attempts 17–11goals 0–0
- Coyle – Niederreiter – Fontaine7:56
xG 0.28–0.07 (81%)attempts 10–4goals 1–0
- Heatley – Konopka – Mitchell2:55
xG 0.15–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Cooke – Brodziak – Bulmer7:40
xG 0.12–0.48 (19%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSuter – Brodin17:03
xG 0.53–0.33 (61%)attempts 19–16goals 1–0
- Scandella – Spurgeon8:22
xG 0.26–0.15 (64%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Ballard – Stoner8:41
xG 0.23–0.46 (34%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestMarleau – Kennedy – Couture7:24
xG 0.37–0.20 (65%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
- Marleau – Pavelski – Kennedy2:08
xG 0.15–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Pavelski – Wingels – Nieto5:21
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Havlat – Desjardins – Hamilton4:44
xG 0.00–0.18 (0%)attempts 1–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStuart – Demers9:31
xG 0.38–0.26 (59%)attempts 7–10goals 0–1
- Boyle – Irwin5:33
xG 0.12–0.13 (47%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Vlasic – Braun11:18
xG 0.28–0.35 (45%)attempts 12–13goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 89% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).