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Ice Lab

Fri, Dec 13, 2013·BB&T Center, Sunrise

Washington Capitals 2, Florida Panthers 3 (SO)

Away

Washington Capitals

2

Final

Shootout

Home

Florida Panthers

3

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 84% of the time.

FLA winsWSH wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3OTSOTotal
WSH072806043225
FLA01621309034341

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P2 2:13FLADylan OlsenAssists: Tomas Kopecky, Jonathan Huberdeau · Snap, 0.07 xG0–1
  2. P2 16:34WSHNicklas BackstromAssists: Mikhail Grabovski · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–1
  3. P2 17:56FLAAleksander BarkovUnassisted · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–2
  4. P2 19:30WSHJoel WardPPAssists: Marcus Johansson, Nicklas Backstrom · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–2

Shootout

  1. 1. WSH Eric Fehr scored
  2. 2. FLA Aleksander Barkov stopped
  3. 3. WSH Alex Ovechkin stopped
  4. 4. FLA Jonathan Huberdeau scored
  5. 5. WSH Nicklas Backstrom scored
  6. 6. FLA Brad Boyes scored
  7. 7. WSH Mikhail Grabovski scored
  8. 8. FLA Nick Bjugstad scored
  9. 9. WSH Troy Brouwer stopped
  10. 10. FLA Dmitry Kulikov stopped
  11. 11. WSH Martin Erat stopped
  12. 12. FLA Tomas Fleischmann stopped
  13. 13. WSH Marcus Johansson stopped
  14. 14. FLA Scottie Upshall stopped
  15. 15. WSH Dmitry Orlov stopped
  16. 16. FLA Jimmy Hayes stopped
  17. 17. WSH Joel Ward stopped
  18. 18. FLA Marcel Goc stopped
  19. 19. WSH Jason Chimera stopped
  20. 20. FLA Tomas Kopecky scored
Penalties (7)
  1. P1 4:30FLAScottie Upshall: Tripping2 min
  2. P1 9:19WSHJohn Carlson: High sticking double minor4 min
  3. P2 16:16FLAErik Gudbranson: Match penatly 10 minutes10 min · PPG
  4. P2 16:16WSHTroy Brouwer: Instigator2 min
  5. P2 16:16WSHTroy Brouwer: Fighting5 min
  6. P2 16:16WSHTroy Brouwer: Misconduct10 min
  7. P2 16:16FLAErik Gudbranson: Fighting5 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

WSH00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0FLA
48% to win52% to win
← WSH attackFLA attack →
  1. P1 20:00Barkov won the faceoff against Erat
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

WSHFLA
25Shots on goal41
1.6Expected goals3.7
45Shot attempts67
27Faceoffs won26
3Power plays2
21Penalty minutes17
24Hits20
11Blocked shots11
3Giveaways3
3Takeaways7

Line combinations that worked

Model-based

Each team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.

Washington Capitals

Forward lines

  1. bestErat – Fehr – Grabovski2:20

    xG 0.12–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0

  2. Fehr – Grabovski – Brouwer6:43

    xG 0.26–0.29 (47%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0

  3. Beagle – Volpatti – Wilson3:57

    xG 0.02–0.11 (14%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0

  4. Ovechkin – Backstrom – Johansson14:16

    xG 0.28–0.57 (33%)attempts 8–11goals 0–1

Defence pairs

  1. bestGreen – Orlov5:03

    xG 0.12–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0

  2. Alzner – Carlson5:55

    xG 0.00–0.08 (0%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0

  3. Oleksy – Schmidt13:00

    xG 0.43–0.54 (45%)attempts 13–13goals 0–0

Florida Panthers

Forward lines

  1. bestUpshall – Bjugstad – Huberdeau10:58

    xG 0.88–0.36 (71%)attempts 17–10goals 0–0

  2. Kopecky – Goc – Fleischmann10:46

    xG 0.30–0.04 (88%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0

  3. Boyes – Bergenheim – Barkov9:51

    xG 0.36–0.14 (73%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0

  4. Barch – Matthias – Hayes6:33

    xG 0.15–0.29 (34%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0

Defence pairs

  1. bestCampbell – Olsen5:58

    xG 0.77–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0

  2. Weaver – Kulikov16:32

    xG 0.65–0.37 (64%)attempts 16–14goals 0–0

  3. Campbell – Kulikov3:31

    xG 0.35–0.08 (81%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

FLA 3.7 xGWSH 1.6 xG
01234P1P2P3OTEndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

FLAWSH

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.

Excitement 53/100 · #524 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.66 · 4 goals in reachComeback index 48% (winner's lowest chance)
WSH 100%5050%50FLA 100%P1P2P3OTEndBiggest swing +27 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 84% of the time.

FLA winsWSH wins

Simulated goal difference (FLA − WSH), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).