Sat, Dec 14, 2013·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Los Angeles Kings 5, Ottawa Senators 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 38 | 012 | 26 | 526 |
| OTT | 09 | 115 | 115 | 239 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:21LAKDwight KingAssists: Jeff Carter, Jake Muzzin · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–0
- P1 4:18LAKJeff CarterUnassisted · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–0
- P1 12:56LAKAnze KopitarGWGAssists: Slava Voynov, Dwight King · Snap, 0.20 xG3–0
- P2 13:51OTTJoe CorvoAssists: Cory Conacher, Jason Spezza · Wrist, 0.18 xG3–1
- P3 4:24OTTErik KarlssonAssists: Kyle Turris, Patrick Wiercioch · Wrist, 0.03 xG3–2
- P3 13:18LAKJarret StollAssists: Drew Doughty, Jake Muzzin · Wrist, 0.17 xG4–2
- P3 16:42LAKAnze KopitarPPAssists: Dwight King, Jeff Carter · Wrist, 0.15 xG5–2
Penalties (9)
- P1 7:17LAKWillie Mitchell: Hooking2 min
- P1 17:44OTTJason Spezza: Holding2 min
- P2 5:48OTTEric Gryba: High sticking2 min
- P2 8:02LAKDustin Brown: Roughing2 min
- P3 0:47LAKDrew Doughty: Tripping2 min
- P3 15:20OTTJoe Corvo: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 18:52OTTZack Smith: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 18:52LAKDaniel Carcillo: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 19:19LAKJake Muzzin: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Pageau won the faceoff against Kopitar
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestWilliams – Stoll – Brown11:14
xG 0.81–0.17 (83%)attempts 17–6goals 1–0
- Carter – Kopitar – King13:27
xG 0.64–0.35 (65%)attempts 13–15goals 3–1
- Carcillo – Lewis – Nolan5:05
xG 0.03–0.46 (5%)attempts 3–10goals 0–1
- Richards – Clifford – Toffoli9:59
xG 0.10–1.20 (8%)attempts 2–16goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMuzzin – Doughty16:03
xG 0.59–0.49 (55%)attempts 19–14goals 3–0
- Regehr – Voynov14:35
xG 0.72–0.66 (52%)attempts 15–20goals 1–2
- Mitchell – Martinez6:52
xG 0.27–0.36 (43%)attempts 3–8goals 0–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestSpezza – Conacher – Zibanejad3:06
xG 0.66–0.10 (87%)attempts 10–3goals 1–0
- Ryan – Greening – Turris2:57
xG 0.48–0.16 (75%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Neil – Greening – Pageau4:28
xG 0.31–0.01 (96%)attempts 5–1goals 0–1
- Neil – Greening – Smith4:16
xG 0.14–0.01 (91%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCorvo – Karlsson13:10
xG 0.76–0.61 (55%)attempts 14–14goals 1–1
- Gryba – Wiercioch12:23
xG 0.47–0.47 (50%)attempts 12–9goals 0–0
- Phillips – Ceci14:06
xG 0.42–0.45 (48%)attempts 16–11goals 0–3
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − LAK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).