Sat, Dec 14, 2013·MTS Centre, Winnipeg
Dallas Stars 6, Winnipeg Jets 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 74% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 211 | 313 | 18 | 632 |
| WPG | 18 | 216 | 114 | 438 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:14DALTyler SeguinAssists: Sergei Gonchar · Snap, 0.12 xG1–0
- P1 10:12WPGMatt HalischukAssists: Mark Scheifele, Michael Frolik · Backhand, 0.21 xG1–1
- P1 14:24DALValeri NichushkinUnassisted · Wrist, 0.29 xG2–1
- P2 12:58WPGBlake WheelerPPAssists: Olli Jokinen, Dustin Byfuglien · Snap, 0.22 xG2–2
- P2 13:46DALJamie BennAssists: Tyler Seguin, Sergei Gonchar · Wrist, 0.22 xG3–2
- P2 14:53WPGBlake WheelerAssists: Bryan Little · Wrist, 0.04 xG3–3
- P2 17:46DALJamie BennPPAssists: Tyler Seguin, Sergei Gonchar · Wrist, 0.08 xG4–3
- P2 18:49DALTyler SeguinPPGWGAssists: Sergei Gonchar, Ray Whitney · Slap, 0.02 xG5–3
- P3 2:48DALColton SceviourAssists: Antoine Roussel, Brenden Dillon · Backhand, 0.11 xG6–3
- P3 18:19WPGOlli JokinenAssists: Chris Thorburn, Devin Setoguchi · Wrist, 0.25 xG6–4
Penalties (12)
- P1 11:35DALRich Peverley: Hooking2 min
- P1 17:22WPGChris Thorburn: Roughing2 min
- P2 4:27WPGChris Thorburn: Interference2 min
- P2 6:02DALAlex Goligoski: Holding2 min
- P2 7:08DALBrenden Dillon: Roughing2 min
- P2 10:51WPGBlake Wheeler: Delaying game2 min
- P2 10:51DALAntoine Roussel: Delaying game2 min
- P2 12:31DALCody Eakin: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 15:28WPGAnthony Peluso: Boarding5 min · PPG
- P2 15:28WPGAnthony Peluso: Game misconduct10 min
- P2 15:28WPGAdam Pardy: Roughing2 min
- P2 15:28DALAntoine Roussel: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Scheifele won the faceoff against Eakin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestBenn – Seguin – Nichushkin10:18
xG 1.14–0.50 (70%)attempts 12–12goals 3–1
- Whitney – Peverley – Garbutt7:03
xG 0.05–0.13 (25%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Horcoff – Sceviour – Roussel8:02
xG 0.22–0.31 (42%)attempts 11–7goals 0–1
- Cole – Chiasson – Eakin8:40
xG 0.10–0.39 (20%)attempts 4–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGonchar – Rome10:25
xG 0.76–0.55 (58%)attempts 17–8goals 2–1
- Gonchar – Dillon2:28
xG 0.01–0.04 (21%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Connauton – Oleksiak10:55
xG 0.48–0.58 (46%)attempts 8–16goals 0–2
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestLadd – Wheeler – Little9:50
xG 0.47–0.30 (61%)attempts 9–10goals 1–0
- Frolik – Halischuk – Scheifele3:55
xG 0.45–0.40 (53%)attempts 7–3goals 1–1
- Frolik – Wright – Scheifele5:24
xG 0.09–0.04 (70%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Jokinen – Thorburn – Setoguchi10:12
xG 0.50–0.67 (43%)attempts 13–11goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestPardy – Clitsome11:10
xG 0.57–0.24 (71%)attempts 9–11goals 1–0
- Enstrom – Byfuglien14:57
xG 0.99–0.80 (55%)attempts 21–13goals 2–2
- Stuart – Trouba12:46
xG 0.26–0.89 (23%)attempts 13–15goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 74% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).