Sat, Dec 14, 2013·Air Canada Centre, Toronto
Chicago Blackhawks 3, Toronto Maple Leafs 7
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 111 | 110 | 17 | 328 |
| TOR | 111 | 414 | 27 | 732 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:14TORPeter HollandPPAssists: Joffrey Lupul, Mason Raymond · Snap, 0.28 xG0–1
- P1 16:14CHIPatrick KanePPAssists: Marian Hossa, Duncan Keith · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–1
- P2 0:42TORJerry D'AmigoAssists: Nikolay Kulemin, Carl Gunnarsson · Backhand, 0.21 xG1–2
- P2 12:09TORPeter HollandAssists: Mason Raymond, Joffrey Lupul · Snap, 0.05 xG1–3
- P2 13:30CHIPatrick KaneAssists: Niklas Hjalmarsson · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–3
- P2 14:36TORNikolay KuleminGWGAssists: Jay McClement, Jerry D'Amigo · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–4
- P2 17:08TORJoffrey LupulPPAssists: Jake Gardiner, Mason Raymond · Tip-in, 0.09 xG2–5
- P3 0:28TORJoffrey LupulAssists: Peter Holland, Mason Raymond · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–6
- P3 7:38CHIBrandon SaadAssists: Nick Leddy, Jonathan Toews · Tip-in, 0.19 xG3–6
- P3 8:35TORPhil KesselAssists: Nazem Kadri, Carl Gunnarsson · Wrist, 0.07 xG3–7
Penalties (6)
- P1 1:52CHIKris Versteeg: Tripping2 min
- P1 6:03CHIAndrew Shaw: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 7:24CHIMichael Kostka: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 14:43TORPeter Holland: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P1 15:45TORMason Raymond: Tripping2 min
- P2 15:34CHIAndrew Shaw: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00McClement won the faceoff against Sharp
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestMorin – Shaw – Saad4:52
xG 0.45–0.16 (74%)attempts 13–3goals 0–0
- Hossa – Shaw – Saad2:11
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Kane – Shaw – Saad5:03
xG 0.15–0.19 (45%)attempts 5–3goals 1–1
- Handzus – Versteeg – Kane7:36
xG 0.14–0.25 (36%)attempts 12–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Kostka – Leddy17:56
xG 0.63–0.62 (50%)attempts 22–18goals 1–1
- Oduya – Hjalmarsson13:19
xG 0.38–0.41 (48%)attempts 14–11goals 1–0
- Keith – Seabrook15:27
xG 0.43–1.28 (25%)attempts 18–14goals 0–3
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestKessel – van Riemsdyk – Kadri13:53
xG 1.20–0.41 (75%)attempts 17–16goals 1–1
- McClement – Kulemin – D'Amigo11:54
xG 0.43–0.25 (63%)attempts 8–8goals 2–0
- Lupul – Raymond – Holland14:25
xG 0.65–0.55 (54%)attempts 15–17goals 2–1
- Bodie – McLaren – Smith4:09
xG 0.06–0.03 (66%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFranson – Gardiner17:47
xG 0.99–0.61 (62%)attempts 20–17goals 1–1
- Phaneuf – Gunnarsson10:45
xG 0.48–0.21 (69%)attempts 8–6goals 2–0
- Liles – Rielly14:02
xG 0.47–0.50 (49%)attempts 12–25goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).