Sat, Dec 14, 2013·Joe Louis Arena, Detroit
Pittsburgh Penguins 4, Detroit Red Wings 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 29 | 14 | 112 | 425 |
| DET | 112 | 014 | 03 | 129 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:09DETNiklas KronwallAssists: Justin Abdelkader, Daniel Alfredsson · Wrist, 0.02 xG0–1
- P1 9:08PITSidney CrosbyPPAssists: Jussi Jokinen, Evgeni Malkin · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–1
- P1 12:50PITEvgeni MalkinPPGWGAssists: Jussi Jokinen · Wrist, 0.18 xG2–1
- P2 19:13PITOlli MaattaAssists: Chris Kunitz, Evgeni Malkin · Tip-in, 0.39 xG3–1
- P3 14:33PITSidney CrosbyAssists: Joe Vitale, Chris Conner · Wrist, 0.11 xG4–1
Penalties (9)
- P1 2:37PITChuck Kobasew: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 8:31DETTodd Bertuzzi: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 11:39DETNiklas Kronwall: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 19:30PITDeryk Engelland: Match penatly 10 minutes10 min
- P2 16:02PITCraig Adams: Slashing2 min
- P3 1:43DETDrew Miller: High sticking2 min
- P3 2:19PITEvgeni Malkin: Holding2 min
- P3 17:00PITChris Kunitz: Tripping2 min
- P3 19:25DETPatrick Eaves: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Malkin won the faceoff against Franzen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestDupuis – Kunitz – Crosby8:53
xG 0.32–0.22 (59%)attempts 8–9goals 0–1
- Jokinen – Malkin – Megna5:09
xG 0.03–0.01 (75%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Adams – Dupuis – Sill2:38
xG 0.00–0.04 (0%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Adams – Kobasew – Sill2:22
xG 0.00–0.07 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestNiskanen – Maatta7:56
xG 0.44–0.02 (95%)attempts 5–4goals 1–1
- Despres – Maatta2:50
xG 0.18–0.08 (68%)attempts 3–4goals 1–0
- Bortuzzo – Despres2:06
xG 0.13–0.09 (58%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestBertuzzi – Alfredsson – Datsyuk2:20
xG 0.24–0.09 (73%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Alfredsson – Datsyuk – Abdelkader4:39
xG 0.22–0.12 (65%)attempts 6–2goals 1–0
- Miller – Andersson – Tatar2:08
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Cleary – Eaves – Glendening2:02
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKindl – Lashoff8:16
xG 0.33–0.05 (87%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Quincey – Smith13:24
xG 0.42–0.17 (71%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
- Ericsson – Quincey2:25
xG 0.01–0.01 (42%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).