Sat, Dec 14, 2013·Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum, Uniondale
Montréal Canadiens 1, New York Islanders 0 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 011 | 06 | 06 | 12 | 125 |
| NYI | 09 | 07 | 05 | 00 | 021 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- OT 1:51MTLMax PaciorettyGWGAssists: David Desharnais · Tip-in, 0.21 xG1–0
Penalties (9)
- P1 2:01NYIEric Boulton: Fighting5 min
- P1 2:01MTLGeorge Parros: Fighting5 min
- P1 12:54MTLP.K. Subban: Roughing2 min
- P1 12:54NYIEric Boulton: Roughing2 min
- P2 0:27NYIJosh Bailey: High sticking2 min
- P2 3:11MTLMichael Bournival: Tripping2 min
- P2 10:50NYIJohn Tavares: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 16:11MTLJosh Gorges: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 1:41MTLLars Eller: Illegal check to head2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Plekanec won the faceoff against Nielsen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestBrière – Desharnais – Pacioretty10:15
xG 1.20–0.39 (75%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Prust – Eller – Gallagher3:42
xG 0.26–0.08 (76%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Gionta – Plekanec – Galchenyuk14:39
xG 0.70–0.53 (57%)attempts 18–8goals 0–0
- Prust – Eller – Bournival2:05
xG 0.14–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGorges – Emelin17:13
xG 1.67–0.37 (82%)attempts 23–8goals 0–0
- Markov – Subban16:44
xG 0.63–0.56 (53%)attempts 18–13goals 0–0
- Murray – Diaz9:07
xG 0.08–0.68 (11%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestBoulton – Regin – Martin2:48
xG 0.39–0.10 (80%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Clutterbuck – Nelson – Strome7:11
xG 0.34–0.10 (77%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Nielsen – Grabner – Bailey14:07
xG 0.43–0.59 (42%)attempts 8–14goals 0–0
- Vanek – Okposo – Tavares14:15
xG 0.37–0.72 (34%)attempts 11–17goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHamonic – de Haan17:23
xG 0.86–0.58 (60%)attempts 15–14goals 0–0
- Strait – Ness9:58
xG 0.13–0.33 (29%)attempts 4–9goals 0–0
- MacDonald – Hickey15:16
xG 0.59–1.42 (30%)attempts 11–18goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).